Recommendations
0 to acquire · 2 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor (ADR) | 399.09 | SELL ALL | 399.09 | 375.56 | n/a | n/a | 363.69 (-8.9%) | Exit Taiwan Semiconductor in full. The technical case has fully broken down: the stock has now printed NO TRADE with zero conviction for a third straight session, the 12-week view has slid to 363.69 (-8.9% below the 399.09 close), and price has lost its 100-day moving average on top of the 20- and 50-day - leaving the position 8.89% underwater. This is the exact third-NO-TRADE escalation the prior verdict committed to in writing, so it executes rather than gets re-argued. TSMC's fundamentals remain the strongest in the book (record Q2 revenue of, management guiding AI demand strong through 2029-30) and the 07-27 selloff was a margin-driven, Samsung-triggered flush across the whole chip complex rather than anything company-specific - but constructive fundamentals do not override a fired technical trigger, and forced deleveraging with more to come is not a bottom to hold into. OPERATIONAL: this card supersedes and completes the unfilled 07-24 30% trim - the auto-executor has not run since 07-18, so that order never filled and the book carried the full 211 for three extra sessions; sell the whole 211, not a re-queued 63 (L3/USC-6 - execute a written trigger promptly). Honest counter-case, overruled: price is still +6.3% above the 375.56 stop and +10.2% above EMA200 (362.01), so this is NOT an L2 stop-break exit - it is a committed-trigger exit. Valuation-amplify suppressed (G2, broken DCF anchor on a ~45% grower); section-9 amplify-only means valuation never originates this. PROFIT_ARMED prints for the THIRTEENTH consecutive session and is again a FALSE ARM (Gain_ATR -2.46 on a loser) - this is a loss-control exit, NOT a profit-take, and the ADR-0012 fire rule is not its basis (learnings advisory (a)). Volume (US lot 1), proceeds realized -Estimates: 1wk/4wk n/a (a NO TRADE row prints no Target_Price, so the f=0.30 interpolation has no anchor); 12wk 363.69 (-8.87%) is the drift stepped out of. Action range 395.13-403.05 (close +-0.25 ATR, ATR 15.85). Execute at the Tue 2026-07-28 open; reprice if the open gaps >~1.5%; grade from the execution date/price (L8). · news |
| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices | 494.95 | SELL 30% | 494.95 | 475.00 | 484.53 (-2.1%) | 460.21 (-7.0%) | 609.63 (+23.2%) | Trim AMD by 30% and keep a 120-share core. The trailing stop that was deliberately held through last week's marginal nick has now broken decisively: AMD fell 5.17% to 494.95, which is 0.83 ATR below the 526.88 trail (versus 0.14 ATR on 07-24) and also below the 504.18 model stop the prior verdict named as a front-line exit - and the signal itself flipped from the bullish FailedBreakdown_Up family to RallySell_BearTrend, taking the label from HOLD to AVOID with conviction easing. News confirms the character of the move: Samsung's earnings triggered a complex-wide flush (Intel and Applied Materials -10%, SMH -4.06%) driven by margined, forced sellers, which tends to continue rather than snap back - while AMD's own MI450 ramp and roadmap are undamaged. That combination - broken trail, bearish signal, intact business - is a partial de-risk, not an exit: the 12-week view is still 609.63, roughly 23% above spot, and price still holds the 50-, 100- and 200-day averages. OPERATIONAL: 3 of the 4 committed 07-24 front-line triggers fired (confirming/decisive close <526.88; close <504.18 model stop; bearish family flip). The 4th (12wk turning negative) did NOT fire, which is why this is one tier (30%), not a full exit. Gate check: G3 no longer blocks (it protects a BULLISH signal with a positive forward - the signal is now bearish); G1 n/a (not a fresh breakout at cv>=80); G2 governs only the valuation path. NOT armed (Gain_ATR -0.55, no PROFIT_ARMED, -4.09% underwater) so this is loss-control, not a profit-take. Earnings 08-04 AMC is 6 trading days out - OUTSIDE the <=5-session catalyst-aware hold window, and that doctrine protects winners into a print, not an underwater name with a broken trail. Volume 0.30 x 172 = 51.6 -> (US lot 1); size_mod 1.0x - G2 suppresses the MoS_FV -17.14 amplify so NO tier bump. Proceeds realized -NEW STOP on the retained 120 = 475.00 (2.0x ATR chandelier off the 552.33 swing high); the broken 526.88 trail now sits above spot, and the model's printed Stop_Price 547.33 is a bearish-family stop ABOVE spot - do NOT adopt it. Estimates: 1wk 484.53 (-2.11%) via f=0.30 (L5 mandated, calib_1w -0.548 degenerate, only 4 graded buys); 4wk 460.21 (-7.02%) = the bearish family's own downside target; 12wk 609.63 (+23.17%) - note the 4wk and 12wk point opposite ways, which is precisely why a third is trimmed rather than the whole; WARNING: 12wk exceeds the DCF anchor - projection assumes growth beyond priced-in. Action range 485.29-504.61. Escalation on the retained 120: a close below EMA50 490.48 is the next deterioration tick; a close below 475.00, a second bearish print with the 12wk turning negative (L2), or a SELL-REDUCE completes the exit. Execute at the Tue 2026-07-28 open; reprice if the open gaps >~1.5% (L8). · news |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
6 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.548 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
24 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.