Recommendations
0 to acquire · 1 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor (ADR) | 403.41 | SELL 30% | 403.41 | 375.56 | n/a | n/a | 377.50 (-6.4%) | Trim the retained TSM core 30% (63 of ->) as the exit case matured to the committed 2-consecutive-NO-TRADE threshold with a decisively-negative forward view - a measured, signal-based loss-control de-risk, not a full exit and not valuation-driven. TSM printed NO TRADE cv0 for the second straight scan (07-24 and 07-25), the exact wait-line the prior EOD named; close 403.41 (-2.93%), now -7.90% underwater, 12wk slid to 377.50 (-6.4% vs spot, decisively negative), and price has lost EMA50 (419.29) and is testing EMA100 (399.11). Kept to one tier (30%), not a full exit, because the 375.56 stop (+7.4% cushion) and EMA200 (361.58) backstops are intact, fundamentals are strong (record Q2 +77%, FY26 guide raised to >40% - an AI-capex sentiment de-rating, not a crack), and the counterfactual optional_trim aggregate cost a median -0.9% at 1wk. Operational: valuation-amplify suppressed (G2, broken DCF 45.28 on a ~45% grower) so no tier bump; section-9 amplify-only means valuation cannot originate the sell (it is signal-based). PROFIT_ARMED prints for the twelfth consecutive session and is again a FALSE ARM (Gain_ATR -2.28 on a loser; T12-progress arm 106.9% off a broken anchor) - this trim is a loss-control exit, NOT a profit-take, and the fire rule is not its basis (learnings advisory (a)). Estimates (sell): 1wk/4wk n/a (NO TRADE row has no trade target), 12wk 377.50 (-6.4%) is the drift the trimmed third steps out of; f=0.30 mandated (L5) but inapplicable without a target. Volume 0.30*211 = 63.3 -> (US lot 1), proceeds Execute at the Mon 2026-07-27 open (reprice if the open gaps >~1.5%; grade from execution date/price per L8). Full-exit escalation on the : close <375.56, close <EMA200 ~361.58, a 3rd NO TRADE, or a SELL-REDUCE reprint. · news |
| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices | 521.95 | HOLD | 516.08 | 526.88⚠ | n/a | 593.04 (+14.9%) | 674.61 (+30.7%) | Hold AMD and keep the 526.88 trail unactioned - the committed trail was nicked but only by 0.14 ATR on a broad sector down-day, a non-decisive breach that G3 forbids trimming on. The winner eased into the semi selloff: close 521.95 (-3.29%), conviction (a 7-pt ease, not a >=20 collapse), but the position is still +1.14% in the money with a 12-week view of 674.61 (+29.3%) and a bullish FailedBreakdown_Up family. The 526.88 trail is breached by close (521.95, -0.94%) and the monitor flags it, but the break is only 0.14 ATR (ATR 35.55) with price still well above EMA50 (490.30), EMA100 (420.95) and EMA200 (338.64) - a clean uptrend nicked by sector beta, not a decisive break - so the trail is held, not lowered (chandelier ratchets up only; the model's own Stop_Price 504.18 sits far below). News confirms the hold: this is a broad risk-off rotation (SOX in a bear market, chip cap -3T since 06-22), not an AMD-specific breakdown, and per section-9 thematic weakness is not a sell basis. Operational: not armed (Gain_ATR 0.17 < 3.0, T12 progress 77.4% < 90, no PROFIT_ARMED) so ADR-0012 profit-take does not engage; no Exit_Warning; G3 blocks any trim outright on a +29% forward. Front-line exit watch: a confirming/decisive close below 526.88, a close below the model stop 504.18, a conviction collapse >=20, or the 12wk turning negative is the valid exit basis (L2). val_adj 0 (G2: DCF 175 on a ~45% grower is a broken anchor; Quality_Pass False never blocks a held name). · news |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
5 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.548 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
24 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.