Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices | 539.69 | HOLD | 516.08 | 526.88 | n/a | 613.06 (+18.8%) | 714.18 (+38.4%) | Hold AMD - the winner eased but there is no sell case, and the raised trail is held, not lowered. The stock pulled back 2.29% to 539.69 and conviction slipped (an 8-point ease, not a >=20 collapse tick), but the position is still +4.58% in the money with a 12-week view of 714.18 (about +32% above spot) and a bullish FailedBreakdown_Up family. News confirms the hold: the Advancing AI 2026 keynote landed 07-22/23 without a negative reaction and Rosenblatt/UBS raised targets to 665/700 (Strong Buy). Operational: not armed (Gain_ATR 0.64 < 3.0, T12 progress 75.6% < 90, no PROFIT_ARMED) so the ADR-0012 profit-take does not engage; no Exit_Warning; G3 blocks any trim outright on a +32% forward view. The model printed Stop_Price 521.35, BELOW the 07-22 committed trail of 526.88 - a trailing stop ratchets up only, so the trail is HELD at 526.88, not lowered; close 539.69 sits +2.43% above it. A decisive close below 526.88 is the valid exit basis (L2). No add queued (USC-4: pyramids must be reclaim-gated buy-stops; the row prints no entry and the day was down). val_adj 0 (G2: DCF 175 on a ~45% grower is a broken anchor, and Quality_Pass False never blocks a held name). · news |
| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor (ADR) | 415.58 | HOLD | 438.02 | 375.56 | n/a | n/a | 399.05 (-8.9%) | Hold the retained TSM core - the exit case keeps softening but no signal-based trigger has fired. TSM eased 1.34% to 415.58 and printed NO TRADE cv0 (from AVOID cv49), now -5.12% underwater, with the 12-week view down to 399.05 (about -4% under spot). But price is still +10.7% above the 375.56 stop and above EMA200 (~360), this is a single NO TRADE (not 2 consecutive), and no defined exit trigger has fired (no close below 375.56, no close below EMA200, no SELL-REDUCE reprint). News is constructive on fundamentals (record Q2 net +77%, FY26 revenue guide raised to above 40%); the -15% monthly weakness is 2nm-ramp margin de-rating, not a fundamental crack, so the amplify-only doctrine (section 9) does not originate a sell. Operational: stop 375.56 UNCHANGED. PROFIT_ARMED prints for the ELEVENTH consecutive session and is again a FALSE ARM (Gain_ATR -1.47 on a position 5.12% underwater; the T12-progress arm reads 104.1% off a broken anchor) - the profit-take fire rule is explicitly NOT applied, even though mechanical tick-(c) dead-12wk would otherwise fire, which is exactly why the false-arm gate matters (learnings advisory (a)). Do NOT adopt the printed Stop_Price 454.65 (bearish-family stop above spot). Further-exit triggers: close below 375.56, close below EMA200 ~360, a SELL-REDUCE reprint, or a decisive lower close with the 12wk decisively negative; the conviction collapse to 0 keeps TSM on watch. val_adj 0 (broken DCF 45.28 vs a ~416 price). · news |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
5 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.548 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
24 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.