Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices | 552.33 | HOLD | 516.08 | 526.88 | n/a | 628.19 (+21.7%) | 733.54 (+42.1%) | Hold AMD and lock in the winner with a raised trail. The stock firmed to 552.33 (+1.45%) for a fifth straight strengthening session, conviction climbed, and the position is now +7.03% in the money with the 12-week view lifted to 733.54, roughly 33% above spot - there is no sell case of any kind. AMD's Advancing AI 2026 keynote (Lisa Su, MI450X/MI500 roadmap and customer names, Moscone) landed 07-22/23 without a negative reaction, on top of the banked Microsoft Azure Helios win and price-target raises to /Operational: not armed (Gain_ATR 0.96 < 3.0, T12 progress 75.3% < 90, no PROFIT_ARMED) so the ADR-0012 profit-take rule does not engage; no Exit_Warning; G3 blocks any trim outright on a +33% forward view. The 07-21 COMMITTED post-keynote ratchet now executes: raise the trail 494..88 (the model's own ratcheted Stop_Price, above the 522.60 committed floor) - locks +2.1% vs cost while leaving ~4.6% of room below the close. A decisive close below 526.88 is now the valid exit basis (L2); next session may chandelier the trail off the post-event high if it prints higher. No add queued (USC-4: pyramids must be reclaim-gated buy-stops, and the row prints no entry). val_adj 0 (G2/note-B: DCF on a ~45% grower is a broken anchor). · news |
| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor (ADR) | 421.21 | HOLD | 438.02 | 375.56 | n/a | n/a | 406.72 (-7.1%) | Hold the retained TSM core - the exit case is softening but no signal-based trigger has fired. TSM eased 0.80% to 421.21, conviction slipped, and the 12-week view ticked down to 406.72 (~1.1% under spot), so the exit case that had un-matured on 07-21 has partly re-matured. But price is still +12.2% above the 375.56 stop and above EMA200, the label is AVOID on a bearish FailedBreakout_Down family (neither a buy nor a SELL-REDUCE), and none of the defined exit triggers has fired. The 50% de-risk was already executed 07-17 at; what remains is the defined core. Operational: stop 375.56 UNCHANGED. PROFIT_ARMED prints for the TENTH consecutive session and is again a FALSE ARM (Gain_ATR -1.01 on a position 3.84% underwater; the T12-progress arm reads 103.6% off a broken anchor) - the profit-take fire rule is explicitly NOT applied, even though mechanical tick-(c) 'dead 12wk' would otherwise fire, which is exactly why the false-arm gate matters (learnings advisory (a)). Do NOT adopt the printed Stop_Price 454.65 - that is the bearish-family stop above spot, meaningless for a long. Further-exit triggers: close <375.56, close <EMA200 ~360, a SELL-REDUCE reprint, or a decisive lower close with the 12wk decisively negative; the -15 conviction slip puts TSM on watch for next session. val_adj 0 (broken DCF vs a price); amplify-only doctrine means valuation cannot originate this sell anyway. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
5 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.548 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
24 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.