Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices | 544.43 | HOLD | 516.08 | 494.30 | n/a | 621.96 (+20.5%) | 709.86 (+37.5%) | Hold AMD and let the winner run into its own catalyst. The stock jumped 8.1% to 544.43 on the semiconductor sector's sharpest rebound since its worst week in over a year, carrying the position from 2.4% underwater to +5.5% in the money one session before AMD's Advancing AI 2026 keynote, where Lisa Su is expected to detail the MI450X and MI500 accelerator roadmap and, more importantly for the stock, name customers - on top of the already-banked Microsoft Azure Helios win and price-target raises to (Rosenblatt) and (UBS). The signal flipped back off AVOID to HOLD cv64 and the 12-week view is 709.86, 30% above spot, so there is no sell case of any kind here. Operational: not armed (Gain_ATR 0.73 vs the 3.0 bar, T12 progress 76.7% < 90, no PROFIT_ARMED) so the ADR-0012 profit-take rule does not engage; no Exit_Warning; G3 blocks any trim outright on a strongly positive forward view. Stop held at 494.30 UNCHANGED for one more session - the model has ratcheted its own stop up to 522.60, but tightening to ~4% into a binary keynote invites the noise stop-out US-3/USC-5 warns against. COMMITTED: ratchet the trail to 522.60 (or a chandelier off the post-event high, whichever is higher) once Advancing AI concludes. A decisive close below 494.30 remains the valid exit basis (L2). No add queued despite the news - USC-4 requires a reclaim-gated buy-stop, never a market buy into a bounce, and the row prints no entry. val_adj 0 (G2/note-B: DCF on a ~45% grower is a broken anchor). · news |
| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor (ADR) | 424.61 | HOLD | 438.02 | 375.56 | n/a | n/a | 407.07 (-7.1%) | Hold the retained TSM core - the exit case that was maturing has un-matured. TSM rose 5.5% to 424.61 as chip stocks rebounded on Taiwan's June US export orders (+83.6% YoY) and strong Korean export data, cutting the unrealized loss from -8.15% to -3.06% and, for the first time in six sessions, revising the 12-week view UP.07). The fundamentals underneath remain the strongest in the book: Q2 EPS (+74.5% YoY), revenue (+33.7%), and FY26 capex raised to -64B. The label is AVOID cv64, but that conviction sits on a bearish FailedBreakout_Down family - it is neither a buy nor a SELL-REDUCE, and price is 13.0% above the 375.56 stop and back above EMA50 as well as EMA200 (360.30), so no L2 leg is present. The 50% de-risk already executed on 07-17 at; what remains is the defined core, and not dumping it into Friday's rout low is now worth roughly + on the retained 211. Operational: stop 375.56 UNCHANGED. PROFIT_ARMED prints for the NINTH consecutive session and is again a FALSE ARM (Gain_ATR -0.74 on a position 3.06% underwater; the T12-progress arm reads 104.3% off a broken anchor) - the profit-take fire rule is explicitly NOT applied and the armed-to-trail-raise branch does not engage (learnings advisory (a)). Do NOT adopt the model's printed Stop_Price 461.09 - that is the bearish-family stop sitting above spot, meaningless for a long. Further-exit triggers: close <375.56, close <EMA200 360.30, a SELL-REDUCE reprint, or a decisive lower close with the 12wk back negative. val_adj 0 (broken DCF vs a price); amplify-only doctrine means valuation cannot originate this sell anyway. · news |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
4 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.548 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
24 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.