Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices | 503.57 | HOLD | 516.08 | 494.30 | n/a | n/a | 642.89 (+24.6%) | Hold AMD. The position firmed on real news: Microsoft Azure will AMD's Helios rackscale platform for large-scale AI inference, and both Rosenblatt (to) and UBS (to) raised price targets, lifting the stock 1.6% to 503.57 and back to +1.9% above the 494.30 stop. The signal prints AVOID on a failed-breakout read, but the 12-week view is still strongly positive (642.89, +27.7%) and the Advancing AI keynote lands 07-22 - so this is a catalyst-aware hold, not a trim. Valuation reads GROWTH_PRICED_IN but the DCF anchor is the known broken artifact for a ~45% grower, so val_adj is suppressed (note B / G2) and never originates a sell. Operational: stop 494.30 UNCHANGED - deliberately not tightened into a binary event keynote (noise stop-out risk) and not loosened; a decisive close below 494.30 is the valid exit basis (L2), though the positive 12wk argues trim-not-full-exit. Not armed (Gain_ATR -0.34, no PROFIT_ARMED) so no trail-raise branch. No news-driven add queued: the signal prints no entry, and USC-3/USC-4 require a signal and a reclaim-gated buy-stop, not a narrative market buy. · news |
| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor (ADR) | 402.30 | HOLD | 438.02 | 375.56 | n/a | n/a | 377.71 (-13.8%) | Hold the retained TSM core. The fundamentals are the strongest on the board - record Q2 revenue (+33.7% YoY) at 67.7% gross margin, FY26 growth guidance raised from 30% to above 40%, and an extra committed to Arizona (total) - yet the stock still sold off into the broad AI de-rate and sits 8.2% below cost. The technical is broken (NO TRADE, conviction 0, 12-week view eroding to 377.71, below EMA50) but not one exit trigger has fired: price actually rose 1.0% to 402.30 and remains 7.1% above the 375.56 stop and above EMA200. The 50% de-risk already executed on 07-17 at; what remains is the defined core riding intact fundamentals, so the right action today is none. Operational: stop 375.56 UNCHANGED. The row prints PROFIT_ARMED for the eighth straight session but it is a FALSE ARM (Gain_ATR -2.10 on an 8.15% loser; known defect, learnings advisory item (a)) - the ADR-0012 profit-take fire rule is explicitly NOT applied and the armed-to-trail-raise branch does not engage. Valuation val_adj suppressed (DCF vs a price is a broken anchor); amplify-only doctrine means it cannot originate this sell anyway. Further-exit triggers restated: close <375.56, close <EMA200 359.77, a SELL-REDUCE reprint, or a decisive lower close. · news |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
4 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.548 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
24 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.