Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor (ADR) | 398.37 | HOLD | 438.02 | 375.56 | n/a | 403.50 (-7.9%) | 383.29 (-12.5%) | Hold the retained 211 after the 07-17 50% de-risk executed at (well-timed ahead of Friday's further slide to 398.37). TSM prints AVOID cv49 (RallySell_BearTrend) with the model 12wk now negative (383.29, -3.8%) and -9.05% underwater on a 7th straight down day, but no defined sell trigger has fired: AVOID is not a SELL-REDUCE, and L2 needs a decisive stop break AND negative 12wk -- close 398.37 is +6.1% above the 375.56 structural stop and +11% above EMA200 (359.04), so the stop-break half is absent. News frames Friday's -7.3% as a sector-wide semi rout on an intact-fundamentals name (Q2 double-beat, FY26 guide >40%, PTs raised by DA Davidson/TD Cowen/Barclays) -- not a case to dump the remainder into the rout low. Already halved 07-17. Sharpened further-exit trigger: a close below EMA200 (359.04) or 375.56, or any SELL-REDUCE reprint / decisive lower close now that the 12wk is negative, completes the de-risk. PROFIT_ARMED spurious (underwater). val_adj 0 (G2, DCF blind). · news |
| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices | 495.76 | HOLD | 516.08 | 494.30 | n/a | 575.70 (+11.6%) | 649.73 (+25.9%) | Hold AMD 172. Signal HOLD cv46 (FailedBreakdown_Up_20D), close 495.76 (-3.94%) sits only +0.3% above the 494.30 structural stop, but the 12wk 649.73 (+31%) is strongly positive so L2 (stop-break AND negative 12wk) cannot trigger; not a REDUCE, not armed (Gain_ATR -0.51), no exit warning. News: the slide is the same sector rout, not a fundamental break (Goldman Buy BofA, +160% YTD). Advancing AI 07-22/23 (~2 sessions) -> catalyst-aware HOLD/trail through the event, no pre-trim; a decisive close below 494.30 remains a valid exit. Keep stop 494.30 (no ratchet down to the model's looser 460.21); the 539.68 line is retired to a re-arm trigger only. val_adj 0 (G2, DCF broken anchor). · news |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
4 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.548 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
24 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.