Recommendations
0 to acquire · 1 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor (ADR) | 409.74 | SELL 50% | 409.74 | 375.56 | n/a | n/a | 411.26 (+0.4%) | Trim TSM by half: a record Q2 beat (rev +36% YoY, profit +77%, FY26 guide raised >40%) still sent the stock down ~3-4% on a raised -64B capex + margin worry, and the settled 07-16 close 409.74 is the post-print decider firing bearish. Signal escalated NO TRADE -> STRONG SELL - REDUCE (RallySell_BearTrend, Sell_Rank 1), the 12wk is dead (411.26, +0.4%), the name is -6.46% underwater, and the de-risk has gone unexecuted 4 straight sessions. Half, not full: still above EMA200 and the 375.56 stop, FY guide strong, 12wk not yet negative (no L2 full-exit basis). Escalated from the 30% catalyst-cap now that earnings passed. val_adj 0 (G2 DCF blind); PROFIT_ARMED spurious. Retains 211 on the 375.56 stop; further exit on a close < EMA200 358.93 or < 375.56. Frees. · news |
| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices | 500.94 | HOLD | 516.08 | 494.30 | n/a | 578.03 (+12.0%) | 685.57 (+32.8%) | Hold AMD: the slide to 500.94 was a sector-wide chip selloff (Samsung-triggered), not a fundamental break, with the Street still positive (Goldman Wells). Signal HOLD (cv collapsed and this is the 2nd consecutive close below the 539.68 reclaim line, but the 12wk is strongly positive (+37%) so L2 gives no exit, and the close is +1.4% above the 494.30 structural stop (intact). No signal-based sell reason. Recorded stop reset from the mislabeled 539.68 reclaim line to the true 494.30 structural stop (no protective-stop loosening). 539.68 retained only as the future add re-arm trigger. Exit on a decisive close < 494.30 or the 12wk rolling negative. · news |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
3 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.548 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
24 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.