Recommendations
0 to acquire · 1 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor (ADR) | 419.48 | SELL 30% | 438.02 | 405.76 | n/a | n/a | 434.27 (-0.9%) | Trim TSM 30% to cut risk on a deteriorating position -- the 3rd re-issue of the unexecuted 07-14/07-15 trim (L3: execute the de-risk promptly; the portfolio still shows 422 and the name keeps bleeding). Risk-control de-risk: conviction pinned at 0 for a 3rd consecutive session (NO TRADE, 'Consensus conflict + low conviction'), a new lower settled close 419.48 (3 straight lower closes 421...48), underwater -4.23% (Gain_ATR -1.07), and the 12wk 434.27 has collapsed to only +3.5% over close. Loss-minimization-first: honor the breached trail partially. Held at the conservative 30% tier (not escalated to 50%) -- the prior run's '3rd NO TRADE -> fuller exit' trigger has fired, but the 07-16 Q2 earnings print lands right at execution (catalyst-aware gate: don't escalate selling into a <=5-day bullish-setup catalyst) and the 12wk is not yet negative (no L2 full-exit basis); the post-print 07-16 settled close is the decider -- a close below the 405.76 structural stop or a 4th NO TRADE escalates to 50%. Execute at the 07-16 open; TSM reports pre-market so the trim fills post-print -- reprice/withdraw if it gaps >1.5% (a bullish gap flips the signal off NO TRADE, L8). PROFIT_ARMED on the row is spurious (T12 96.59% >=90 but the name is at a loss). GPI DCF -> valuation blind, amplify suppressed (G2). 1wk n/a (no Target_Price; model band 400.61-447.17 straddles close); 12wk 434.27 (+3.5%) retained on the held, structural stop held at 405.76 (not loosened to the lower 400.61 Est_Low). · news |
| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices | 529.14 | WATCH — queued order lapsed | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Queued buy @539.67 lapsed — closed 529.14 below the level; awaiting reprice at the next end-of-day run. Pyramid on AMD -- add (43.11% of the 172-share holding,) only on confirmed strength. AMD re-rated to a fresh PullbackBuy_VWAP (cv 71, the L1-favored family), the first BUY-ADD after 3 HOLDs, with a 12wk of 754.02 (+42.5%). But the 07-15 close 529.14 sits 1.95% below the broken 539.68 confirmation line, so the add is QUEUED as a GTC buy-stop @539.67 -- reclaim-gated, filling only if AMD trades back above the broken line (US-1: queue-don't-fill a BUY-ADD, cancel-on-fade at the BOD reconcile). Needs no cash today; self-limiting. size_mod 1.0x -- the -16.79 MoS is a broken-DCF artifact (DCF for a ~45% grower, G2-unreliable), so neither penalize conviction nor haircut size. Stop on the added lot = the model 494.30. Takes AMD (, ~13% of book, within cap). Estimates use f=0.30 (L5): 1wk 562.64 (+4.3%); 4wk 616.25 (+14.2%); 12wk 754.02 (+39.7%) exceeds the DCF anchor -- projection assumes growth beyond priced-in. expires 2026-07-21 (anchor + 3 sessions). News confirms Strong Buy + PT raises -670. · news |
| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices | 529.14 | HOLD | 516.08 | 539.68⚠ | 562.64 (+9.0%) | 616.25 (+19.4%) | 754.02 (+46.1%) | Hold AMD 172 @516.08, +2.53%. The 07-15 close is 1.95% below the 539.68 confirmation line, but this is only the 1st close below since the 07-14 reclaim (548.13) and is signal-contradicted: the model re-rated to a fresh PullbackBuy_VWAP BUY-ADD (cv 71), the 12wk 754.02 is strongly positive (+42.5%), and the name is not armed (Gain_ATR 0.34). L2 requires a stop-break AND a negative 12wk to exit -- 12wk is +42.5%, so no exit; G1/G3 winner-protection + the US-3 precedent (a winner with a strongly positive 12wk is a trail, not a trim) apply. Keep 539.68 as the exit-confirmation line (never ratchet down) -- exit only on a confirmed 2nd consecutive close below it with the 12wk rolling negative, or a decisive break of the 494.30 model structural stop. The reclaim-add and this exit line share the 539.67/539.68 pivot. Broken FV anchor (GPI MoS -16.79, DCF) is G2-unreliable, moot on a hold. 1wk 562.64 uses f=0.30 (L5); Est band 497.15-587.17. · news |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
3 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.207 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
24 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.