Recommendations
0 to acquire · 1 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor (ADR) | 420.39 | SELL 30% | 438.02 | 405.76 | n/a | n/a | 443.98 (+1.4%) | Trim TSM 30% to reduce risk into the 07-16 Q2 earnings print -- re-affirming the unexecuted 07-14 trim (L3: execute the de-risk promptly; the portfolio still shows 422 and the name kept bleeding). A risk-control de-risk on a deteriorating technical: conviction pinned at 0 (2nd consecutive NO TRADE, 'Consensus conflict + low conviction'), the 07-14 settled close 420.39 is 1.5% below the 426.80 protective trail (2 straight closes below: 421..39), and the position is underwater -4.02% (Gain_ATR -1.03). Loss-minimization-first: partially honor the breached trail. Capped at the conservative 30% tier (not 50/full) because the 12wk 443.98 is still +5.6% positive (no negative-12wk full-exit basis, L2) and the 07-16 setup is strongly bullish -> keep 70% for the print (catalyst-aware hold). PROFIT_ARMED on the row is spurious (T12 94.69% >=90 but the name is at a loss). NA_CCY -> valuation blind. Execute at the 07-15 open; reprice if it gaps >1.5% (L8). Remaining 295 on a wide structural stop ~405.76 (Est_Low) through earnings; a post-earnings close below 405.76 or a 3rd NO TRADE confirms a fuller exit. Est band 405.76-452.46. · news |
| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices | 548.13 | HOLD | 516.08 | 539.68 | 569.87 (+10.4%) | 620.58 (+20.2%) | 781.09 (+51.4%) | Hold AMD 172 @516.08, +6.21%. The 07-14 breach is fully resolved: the settled close 548.13 is back ABOVE both the 539.68 trail and the 530.02 model stop, the signal re-rated to FailedBreakdown_Up_20D (cv 69), the 12wk 781.09 is strongly positive (+42.5%), and the name is not armed (Gain_ATR 0.88, T12 70.18%). L2 requires a stop-break AND a negative 12wk to exit -- neither holds; G1/G3 winner-protection + the US-3 precedent (a winner with a strongly positive 12wk is a trail, not a trim) apply. News confirms Strong Buy with PT raises to -670 and Advancing AI 07-22 ahead. Keep the protective trail at 539.68 (higher than the 530.02 model stop; a trail never ratchets down). Model 1wk 569.87 uses f=0.30 (L5); 4wk 620.58 (+13.2%); 12wk 781.09 (+42.5%) exceeds the DCF anchor -- projection assumes growth beyond priced-in. Est band 515.20-596.70. · news |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
3 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.207 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
24 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.