Recommendations
0 to acquire · 1 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor (ADR) | 421.58 | SELL 30% | 438.02 | 407.00 | n/a | n/a | 456.17 (+4.1%) | Trim TSM 30% to reduce risk ahead of the 07-16 Q2 earnings print: a risk-control de-risk on a deteriorating technical -- conviction collapsed (NO TRADE, 'Consensus conflict + low conviction'), the 07-13 settled close 421.58 broke 1.22% below the 426.80 protective trail, and the position is underwater -3.75% (Gain_ATR -0.89). Loss-minimization-first: partially honor the breached trail. Capped at the conservative 30% tier (not 50/full) because the 12wk 456.17 is still +8.2% positive, this is only the FIRST NO TRADE (not N-consecutive), and the Street/Yahoo setup into the print is strongly bullish (guided -40.2B rev ~10% seq, GM 65.5-67.5%, ~94.5% beat odds, Barclays PT -> keep 70% for the catalyst. The row's PROFIT_ARMED is spurious (T12 92.4% armed it, but the name is at a loss -- not a profit-take). NA_CCY -> valuation blind (val_adj 0). Execute at the 07-14 open (L8); reprice if it gaps >1.5%. Remaining 295 held on a wide structural stop ~407 (Est_Low) through earnings -- the event is the decider; a post-earnings settled close below 407 or a 2nd NO TRADE confirms a fuller exit. Standalone book (ADR-0014); L7 does not apply. · news |
| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices | 534.39 | HOLD | 516.08 | 539.68⚠ | n/a | 607.36 (+17.7%) | 761.51 (+47.6%) | Hold AMD 172 @516.08, +3.55%. The 07-13 settled close dipped 0.98% below the 539.68 trail, but this is a NON-DECISIVE, signal-contradicted breach: the model re-rated to a constructive PullbackBuy_VWAP (cv 64, the L1-favored family), eased its own structural stop to 496.42, the 12wk 761.51 is strongly positive (+42.6%), and the name is not armed (Gain_ATR 0.52). L2 requires a stop-break AND a negative 12wk to exit -- 12wk is +42.6%, so no exit; G1/G3 winner-protection + the US-3 precedent (a faded name with a strongly positive 12wk is a trail, not a trim) apply. News confirms the pullback is a sector-wide AI profit-take, not AMD-specific, with the Advancing AI event 07-22 and Q2 earnings ahead. Keep the trailing stop at 539.68 (never ratchet down) as a confirmation line -- exit only on a confirmed 2nd settled close below 539.68, the 12wk rolling negative, or a decisive break of the 496.42 model stop. Broken FV anchor (GPI MoS -16.35, DCF for a ~45% grower) is G2-unreliable, moot on a hold. 1wk ~543.5 uses f=0.30 (L5, calib -0.207); Est band 510.63-589.69. · news |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
3 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.207 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
24 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.