Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices | 557.89 | HOLD | 516.08 | 539.68 | 579.74 (+12.3%) | 630.73 (+22.2%) | 794.99 (+54.0%) | Hold AMD 172 @516.08, now +8.1% : stable FailedBreakdown_Up_20D, conviction firm at 74. Not a profit-take -- still not armed (Gain_ATR 1.15 < 3.0, T12 progress 70%), no exit warning, 12wk target 794.99 (+42.5%) strongly positive; G1/G3 winner-protection says trail, don't trim. Raise the trailing stop 526..68 (model chandelier, +4.5% above cost -- locks in the gain). Broken FV anchor (GPI MoS -16.35, DCF for a ~45% grower) is G2-unreliable and moot on a hold. 1wk 579.74 uses f=0.30 (L5, calib degenerate); Est band 518.75-600.65. |
| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor (ADR) | 434.11 | HOLD | 438.02 | 426.80 | 445.27 (+1.7%) | 471.31 (+7.6%) | 483.86 (+10.5%) | Hold TSM 422 @438.02 (-0.89%,): stable FailedBreakdown_Up_20D but conviction eased; close still above stop, 12wk target 483.86 (+11.5%) positive, not armed (Gain_ATR -0.21, T12 progress 89.7% just shy of the 90 arm). Earnings 07-16 (~3 sessions) and June CPI 07-14 -> catalyst-aware HOLD/trail through both events; trim only on a confirmed lower-high or a decisive stop break, never pre-trim into the catalyst. NA_CCY -> valuation blind. Keep the trailing stop at 426.80 (model stop eased to 424.81 -- a trailing stop never ratchets down). 1wk 445.27 uses f=0.30 (L5); Est band 415.31-465.08. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
3 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
0.000 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
24 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.