Recommendations
1 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| ASX | ASE Technology Holding | 43.25 | BUY | 43.25 | 41.54 | 45.30 (+4.7%) | 50.08 (+15.8%) | 61.63 (+42.5%) | Start a position in ASE Technology (ASX), the book's top-ranked fresh buy: a FailedBreakdown_Up_20D signal re-armed to BUY (conviction 69, Buy_Rank 1) with the entry right at the close -- not extended, RSI 57.5. News confirms: AI chip-packaging demand is lifting ASE's LEAP outlook above for 2026, net income +87% YoY and 2026 EPS revised up to (+84% YoY). Risk-defined: stop 41.54 (-3.9%), 4wk target 50.08 (+15.8%), 12wk 61.63 (+42.5%). Sized as a HALF starter ( / vs model-implied) for three stacked cautions: L1 FailedBreakdown_Up_20D is a low-persistence chase family and the signal whipsawed BUY->WATCH->WATCH->BUY over the last 4 snapshots; the stock is +169% YTD / +77% in 3 months (longer-run extended, pullback risk); and June CPI 07-14 (4 sessions out) carries an overlay de-risk-into-print bias. Can add on a second confirming/persistence print. Valuation blind (NA_CCY -- TWD financials; val_adj 0, quality gate off per the NA_* rule despite Quality_Pass=False). scorecard_bias 0 (FailedBreakdown_Up_20D|buy cell report-only, n=2). Standalone book (ADR-0014) -- L7 cross-book share is mirror-era and does not apply; ASX is an independent net-new decision. L8: executes at the next US open 2026-07-10 at the 43.25 close-ref; reprice if the open gaps >1.5%. Entry range 42.40-44.10 (Entry +-0.25xATR). 1wk 45.30 uses f=0.30 (L5, calib degenerate). · news |
| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices | 546.72 | HOLD | 516.08 | 526.48 | n/a | 627.67 (+21.6%) | 779.08 (+51.0%) | Hold AMD 172 @516.08, now +5.94% : conviction rebounded on a fresh bounce and the position is comfortably above cost. Not a profit-take -- still not armed (Gain_ATR 0.76 < 3.0, T12 progress 70%), no exit warning, 12wk target 779.08 (+42%) strongly positive. Stop now moves above cost: raise the trailing stop 497..48 (model chandelier). Broken FV anchor (GPI MoS -16.35, FV/sh vs) is G2-unreliable and moot on a hold. |
| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor (ADR) | 436.96 | HOLD | 438.02 | 426.80 | n/a | 477.59 (+9.0%) | 493.86 (+12.7%) | Hold TSM 422 @438.02 (-0.24%,): stable FailedBreakdown_Up_20D but conviction eased; close still above stop, 12wk target 493.86 positive, not armed (Gain_ATR -0.05). Earnings 07-16 (~4 sessions) and June CPI 07-14 -> catalyst-aware HOLD/trail through both events; trim only on a confirmed lower-high or a decisive stop break, never pre-trim into the catalyst. NA_CCY -> valuation blind. Raise trailing stop 425..80 (model trail). |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
2 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
0.000 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
24 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.