Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 233.95 | WATCH — queued order lapsed | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Queued buy @235.91 lapsed — closed 233.95 below the level; awaiting reprice at the next end-of-day run. NVIDIA printed BUY - ADD on a 52-week-high breakout, its first record since May, on a buyback increase and Morgan Stanley naming it the top semiconductor pick; the model has stayed bullish for three straight sessions (H75 -> H85 -> BA). Valuation is rich but on a usable DCF anchor (MoS -2.03, P), so it is haircut -10 and sized at 0.75x. adj -10 +0 (BreakoutUp_52W|buy n=1, report-only) = 68 >= 65. S/R4: GTC buy-stop at the row's own Entry_Price 235.91, which is above the 233.95 close, so it fills only on strength. That is no chase, and US-1 is covered: an add that fades never fills. Size 0.4311 x = 109.07 x 0.75 =. Stop 224.76 (2.0 ATR). R:R 3.75:1 (V4 ok); defined risk (0.09% of book, S ok). Expires 10-07; withdraw at any EOD where cv < 65 or the label leaves the bullish family. Core held; trail raised 220.43 -> 224.76 (W1: settled close < 224.76 -> sell 30%; < EMA200 204.29 -> full exit). PROFIT_ARMED is U4-phantom (Gain_ATR 1.28, T12 ratio), so no trim basis. L1 caveat: the 4wk target 277.78 sits above the 12wk 258.09, the known BreakoutUp_52W overshoot. · news |
| ASML | ASML Holding NV | 1867.31 | HOLD | 1867.31 | 1751.05 | 1947.02 (+4.3%) | 2133.01 (+14.2%) | 2002.87 (+7.3%) | ASML firmed H61 -> H88 (AnticipationUp_VCP) and is back above cost (+2.21%). PROFIT_ARMED rests on the T12 ratio (Gain_ATR 0.84, U4), with no ticks, so trail only. Q results 10-14 (8 sessions): P2, keep the stop loose into the print. Raised 1,721.63 -> engine 1,751.05 (2.43 ATR clearance), not the 1,778 chandelier. W1: any SELL/STRONG SELL - REDUCE print or a settled close < 1,751.05 -> full exit (, T5 stub). |
| — | Arm Holdings plc | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Arm rose +5.18% and printed a second consecutive BUY (B66 -> B76), so Q4 is met, but adj 76 -10 -7 = 59 < 65. The 10-01 re-arm bar (raw >=) is kept exactly as written (W). USC-: a FailedBreakdown buy would be a half-starter in any case. Re-arm: a bullish print with raw cv >= 82. |
| — | Intel Corporation | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Intel printed BUY 71 PullbackBuy_VWAP straight from NO TRADE: a single print (Q4) that fails the quality gate (F6, QR 19), with the limit 1.09 ATR below the close. Blocked for new entry. Re-arm only if Quality_Pass flips True after a regeneration (Q5). |
| — | ASE Technology Holding | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | ASE re-flipped to BUY 65 at a 52-week high after WATCH 56: a single print that fails the quality gate (negative FCF); adj 55 < 65; stop 3.75 ATR wide (S). No re-arm while QP False. |
| — | Lumentum Holdings | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Lumentum printed BUY - ANTICIPATE 70, which is 1 of the last (B68/SB90/ANT70), so the anticipate slot is not eligible, and the quality gate fails (F5, QR 14; W). Stop 3.0 ATR / -19% (S). No re-arm while QP False. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
62 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
0.493 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
91 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.