Recommendations
1 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SNDK | Sandisk Corporation | 1787.69 | BUY | 1787.69 | 1708.00 | 1838.95 (+2.9%) | 1958.55 (+9.6%) | 2178.89 (+21.9%) | Sandisk's buy signal strengthened from BUY 66 to STRONG BUY 86 on Micron's beat-and-raise read-through, it is the book's #1 quality name and its only fair-value bargain, and it trades ~24% below its 52-week high with Street consensus at Strong Buy. adj 86 -7 (MoS -1.42) -7 (FailedBreakdown_Up_20D|buy) = 72 >= 65 (69 even at USC-'s -10 floor). Q4 satisfied (B66 -> SB86, 2 consecutive bullish prints); 09-30 S4 re-arm fired as written; USC- full size allowed because Quality_Pass True (F8, QR 1). Not extended (Entry_Distance 0.00 ATR). Sizing 0.9534 x x 0.20 x 0.75 = ->; S risk (0.63%) < 1%. L8: day limit at the next open; cancel if the open gaps > ~1.5% above 1,787.69 or the label leaves the bullish family by the settled open. · news |
| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing C | 459.20 | NO ACTION | 459.24 | 450.78 | n/a | n/a | 514.96 (+12.1%) | TSMC printed STRONG SELL - REDUCE on an upper-band mean-reversion signal, but it is the fourth label flip in four sessions (H77 -> AV53 -> H70 -> SSR66), price rose +0.66%, the 12-week view is +12% and no news supports a sell, so the exit is armed rather than taken. W1 first-instance-arms: the state's written trigger needed a bearish print PLUS a second tick and only one leg is present (conv -4, not armed: T12 89.17%, Gain_ATR 2.29). Conversion: a second consecutive SELL/STRONG SELL - REDUCE or AVOID print, or a settled close < 450.78 (engine stop) -> mandatory FULL exit at the next open (T5 stub,). Ledgered optional so the counterfactual grader prices not selling at 459.20. · news |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 230.86 | HOLD | 230.86 | 220.43 | 233.99 (+1.4%) | 241.29 (+4.5%) | 251.34 (+8.9%) | NVIDIA's hold signal strengthened to 85 (from 75) as chips led a rebound and Micron's HBM guide confirmed AI demand; RSI_DIV + PROFIT_ARMED is a phantom arm (U4: +1.79%, Gain_ATR 0.78, armed on T12 ratio 91.85%), and MoS -2.03 is not < -3, so no trim. Trail raised 218.10 -> 220.43 (engine). W1: settled close < 220.43 -> sell 30%; settled close < EMA200 204.37 -> full exit. · news |
| ASML | ASML Holding NV | 1808.49 | HOLD | 1808.49 | 1721.63 | 1834.55 (+1.4%) | 1895.35 (+4.8%) | 1885.38 (+4.3%) | ASML holds on a softer HOLD 61 (from 73) while flat (-0.18%); PROFIT_ARMED is phantom (U4: underwater -1.01%), conviction drop -12 < 20, no early Exit_Warning code, so nothing originates a sell. Trail raised 1,718.57 -> 1,721.63 (engine). W1: any SELL/STRONG SELL - REDUCE print or settled close < 1,721.63 -> full exit. Q results 10-14. |
| — | Lumentum Holdings | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Lumentum printed STRONG BUY 90 on a +7.67% 52-week breakout, but it fails the quality gate (F-Score 5, Quality_Rank 14/20), which blocks new entries; the stop at 769.54 is 3.76 ATR / -26% (S fails independently). W: sixth blocked bullish print. No re-arm while Quality_Pass is False. |
| — | Micron Technology, Inc. | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Micron beat FQ4 and guided FQ1 to -63B vs consensus, and the model now prints BUY - ANTICIPATE 96, but that is 1 of the last snapshots (needs 2) so the anticipate slot is not yet eligible. S4 re-arm: a second BUY - ANTICIPATE at the 10-02 close with cv >= 55 -> QUEUED-ANTICIPATE gtc buy-stop at THAT row's Entry_Price (never 1,113.26), 0.5x x 0.75 (MoS -1.54), S-checked, expires sessions; a BUY/STRONG BUY row at the 10-02 close instead is the 2nd consecutive post-earnings bullish print (ACQUIRE pool, adj must clear 65). |
| — | Coherent Corp. | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Coherent jumped +10.9% to BUY 77 straight from NO TRADE: a single-print chase that fails the quality gate; adj 77 -10 -7 = 60 < 65 and Q4 (needs 2 consecutive bullish prints). 12wk 285.93 < close. |
| — | Arm Holdings plc | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Arm re-flipped to BUY 66 after WATCH 54 (single print, Q4); adj 66 -10 -7 = 49 < 65. Re-arm: 2 consecutive bullish prints with adj >= 65 (needs raw >= 82). |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
61 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
0.493 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
91 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.