Recommendations
1 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices, Inc | 649.42 | BUY — QUEUED @650.71 | 650.71 | 580.60 | 692.77 (+6.5%) | 790.92 (+21.5%) | 925.42 (+42.2%) | AMD printed a second consecutive bullish signal (BUY 64 -> BUY 65, now MomentumContinuation_Up) and closed at 649.42 (+2.80%), near a record, after Citi raised its target to on agentic-AI CPU demand. It is the only quality-passing name on the board to clear the 65 floor, so the book buys it on strength with a buy-stop at the model entry. S4 re-arm clause from 10-05 fired (2nd bullish print, raw >= 65). val_adj suppressed to 0 (P3, broken DCF anchor 171.74); size x0.5 (MoS -13.44 <= -). Sizing: 35.06% x x 20% x 0.5 = ->. Vehicle: GTC buy-stop at Entry_Price (S/R4; the family is not a pullback). R:R 2.0:1 (V4 ok); stop 580.60 = 3.0 ATR, defined risk, in line with NVDA (S). 12wk 925.42 above entry (S7). No AMD print inside the window (S5); TSMC Sept revenue 10-09 and TSMC Q 10-15 are read-throughs. Cancel clause: withdraw if conviction < 65 or the label leaves the bullish family at the next EOD, or on expiry 10-09. Reprice if the open gaps >1.5%. · news |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 239.24 | HOLD | 239.24 | 224.76 | 249.47 (+4.3%) | 273.33 (+14.2%) | 273.36 (+14.3%) | NVIDIA held near its record (239.24, +0.14%) and the model firmed to HOLD 73 (AnticipationUp_VCP), so the-share core is held. It is not a buy-add: the label is HOLD, and a re-add needs a fresh BUY/BUY - ADD print with adj >= 65 (raw >= 75 after -10, P usable anchor). Not armed (Gain_ATR 2.28, T12 87.52). The stop stays 224.76 (2.66 ATR; the engine's 224.30 is lower). W1: settled close < 224.76 -> sell 30%; < EMA200 204.76 -> full exit. f=0.30; the 12wk exceeds the DCF anchor 175.43. · news |
| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing C | 482.30 | NO ACTION | 482.30 | 464.78 | 488.29 (+1.2%) | 502.26 (+4.1%) | 578.16 (+19.9%) | TSMC eased 0.72% to 482.30 and the model moved from AVOID 59 back to HOLD 55, so the 10-05 sell-family print did not repeat and the W1 '2nd consecutive sell print' trigger lapses (W5). Genuinely PROFIT_ARMED (Gain_ATR 4.44, +10.11%) but not fired: (a) no other code; (b) is a 4-pt dip; (c) 12wk 578.16 > 491.95; (d) no NO TRADE. The chandelier would be 467.50 (487.46 - 2 x 9.98), but TSMC reports Q on 10-15 (7 sessions), so P2/USC-EOQ-CH holds the stop at 464.78 (1.76 ATR) through the print (assumption: P2 outranks the mechanical trail-raise, as on ASML). A settled close < 464.78 -> full exit (T5 stub). Ledgered optional so the grader prices holding. · news |
| ASML | ASML Holding NV | 1834.10 | HOLD | 1834.10 | 1751.05 | 1861.22 (+1.5%) | 1924.49 (+4.9%) | 1999.96 (+9.0%) | ASML slipped 1.39% to 1,834.10 (+0.39% vs cost) and faded to HOLD 61 ahead of its 10-14 Q print. That is a 12-point drop, below the 20-point tick. PROFIT_ARMED is the U4 phantom (Gain_ATR 0.16, T12 ratio). The stop is held loose at 1,751.05 (1.84 ATR) into the binary event (P2/USC-EOQ-CH). W1: any SELL/STRONG SELL - REDUCE print or a settled close < 1,751.05 -> full exit (, T5 stub). |
| — | Tesla Inc | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Tesla firmed to BUY 84 (Buy_Rank 1, two consecutive bullish prints), adj 67, but it fails the hard quality gate (F-Score/FCF screen), which blocks new entries. It is also a FailedBreakdown chase, a family that is/ stop-first here (USC-3, cell -7). No re-arm while Quality_Pass is False (Q5). |
| — | ASE Technology Holding | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | ASE faded STRONG BUY 81 -> BUY 64 (-1.58%), adj 54, fails the quality gate, and the limit is 2.71 ATR below the close. No re-arm while Quality_Pass is False. |
| — | Intel Corporation | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Intel faded BUY (-3.18%), adj 49, and still fails the quality gate. No re-arm while Quality_Pass is False. |
| — | Lumentum Holdings | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Lumentum printed BUY - ANTICIPATE 70, now of the last prints, so the anticipate slot's count and conviction floor are met, but the hard quality gate fails (W) and the stop is 3.0 ATR / -16.7% wide (S). No re-arm while Quality_Pass is False. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
63 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
0.493 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
91 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.