Recommendations
0 to acquire · 3 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 166.19 | SELL ALL | 166.19 | 224.76⚠ | n/a | n/a | 94.73 (-43.0%) | NVIDIA fell 4.3% to 166.19 after Jensen Huang's exit as CEO, and the model is back at STRONG SELL - REDUCE 85; the stock sits far below its 224.76 stop and its 200-day average, with a 12-week view near 95, so the full exit stands into the 11-17 earnings report. Re-issue of the unfilled 11-11 card (tenth issue); replaces it (no stacking). L2/Q2: -4.23 ATR vs stop, -2.90 ATR vs EMA200 206.45; catalyst-aware hold does not apply to a decisive stop break. at the 11-13 open; reprice if the gap exceeds 1.5%; a gap up does not cancel (S2). Re-add: fresh BUY/BUY - ADD raw >= 75 and settled close > 224.76. Realized about -15,334 vs cost 226.80. · news |
| ASML | ASML Holding NV | 1497.12 | SELL ALL | 1497.12 | 1651.25⚠ | n/a | n/a | 1022.82 (-31.7%) | ASML slipped 2.4% to 1,497.12 and remains well below its 1,651.25 stop and its 200-day average, with a deeply negative 12-week view (1,022.82), so the stop-break exit stands while the model prints NO TRADE for a fourth night. Re-issue of the 11-11 card; replaces it (no stacking). L2/W1/T5: -2.21 ATR vs stop, -1.02 ATR vs EMA200 1,568.24. at the 11-13 open; reprice if the gap exceeds 1.5%; a gap up does not cancel (S2). Withdraw if a settled close > EMA200 with a bullish label. Re-entry: fresh BUY-family raw >= 70 and settled close > 1,651.25. Realized about -1,979 vs cost 1,826.98. · news |
| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing C | 405.49 | SELL ALL | 405.49 | 435.16⚠ | n/a | n/a | 318.56 (-21.4%) | TSMC eased 1.9% to 405.49; it is just above its 200-day average but still under its 435.16 stop with a negative 12-week view (318.56), so the exit stands while the model prints NO TRADE. The case is weakening and has a written withdrawal line. Re-issue of the 11-11 card; replaces it (no stacking). L2 basis (stop break -1.49 ATR + negative 12wk) intact; V1/W1 watch: a settled close >= 435.16, or a bullish label while above EMA200 400.13, withdraws and does not reissue. at the 11-13 open; reprice if the gap exceeds 1.5%; a gap up does not cancel (S2). Realized about -98 vs cost 438.02. · news |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
121 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
0.091 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
91 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.