Recommendations
0 to acquire · 3 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 173.73 | SELL ALL | 173.73 | 224.76⚠ | n/a | n/a | 99.03 (-43.0%) | NVIDIA bounced 2.9% to 173.73 in a sector-wide relief rally after CoreWeave's raised outlook, despite a Baird downgrade, but it is still far below its 224.76 stop and its 200-day average with a 12-week view of 99.03 (about 43% lower), so the full exit stands. The model's label softened to HOLD 73 (oversold bounce), so the exit now rests on the stop line rather than the engine. Re-issue of the unfilled 11-10 card (ninth issue); replaces it (no stacking). L2/Q2: -4.60 ATR vs stop, -2.97 ATR vs EMA200 206.64; V1 withdraw clause half met (label) - price not; catalyst-aware hold into 11-17 earnings does not apply to a decisive stop break. at the 11-12 open; reprice if the gap exceeds 1.5%; a gap up does not cancel (S2). Re-add: fresh BUY/BUY - ADD raw >= 75 and settled close > 224.76. Realized about -13,427 vs cost 226.80. · news |
| ASML | ASML Holding NV | 1534.42 | SELL ALL | 1534.42 | 1651.25⚠ | n/a | n/a | 1046.76 (-31.8%) | ASML rose 1.8% to 1,534.42 in the chip rally but remains below its 1,651.25 stop and its 200-day average, with a deeply negative 12-week view (1,046.76), so the stop-break exit stands even though the model prints NO TRADE for a third night. Re-issue of the 11-10 card; replaces it (no stacking). L2/W1/T5: -1.54 ATR vs stop. at the 11-12 open; reprice if the gap exceeds 1.5%; a gap up does not cancel (S2). Withdraw if a settled close > EMA200 1,569.42 with a bullish label. Re-entry: fresh BUY-family raw >= 70 and settled close > 1,651.25. Realized about -1,755 vs cost 1,826.98. · news |
| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing C | 413.35 | SELL ALL | 413.35 | 435.16⚠ | n/a | n/a | 317.87 (-23.1%) | TSMC rose 4.3% to 413.35 and reclaimed its 200-day average, but it is still under its 435.16 stop with a negative 12-week view (317.87), so the exit stands while the model prints NO TRADE. The case is weakening and has a written withdrawal line. Re-issue of the 11-10 card; replaces it (no stacking). L2 basis (stop break -1.08 ATR + negative 12wk) intact but decaying (V1 watch). W1 trigger: a settled close >= 435.16, or a bullish label while above EMA200 400.37, withdraws and does not reissue. at the 11-12 open; reprice if the gap exceeds 1.5%; a gap up does not cancel (S2). Realized about -74 vs cost 438.02. · news |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
118 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
0.091 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
91 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.