Recommendations
1 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| DELL | Dell Technologies Inc | 450.22 | ADD — QUEUED @411.73 | 411.73 | 379.44 | 426.13 (+3.5%) | 459.74 (+11.7%) | 641.56 (+55.8%) | Dell is the book's strongest signal — a fresh STRONG BUY (conv 100, Buy_Rank #1) on the L1-favored PullbackBuy_VWAP cell, the 3rd straight bullish print with conviction climbing ->100; news CONFIRMS (Evercore lifted its target ->Outperform on AI-infrastructure demand outrunning supply, Zacks Rank #1 Strong Buy, Street mean PT). We already hold (buy-stop filled today at 450.88), so this is a disciplined pyramid-ADD queued as a GTC buy-LIMIT at the model pullback entry 411.73 — ~8.5% BELOW the 450.22 close and below our cost, so it fills only on a genuine dip (no chase; L1/UT-6). Priced slightly rich (FAIR_VALUE, MoS_FV -2.50 -> val_adj -10, adj conv 90); size x0.75 -> add (0.6695*222*0.75). Stop 379.44 (model, ~1 ATR / -7.8% from entry). CAVEAT: model 12wk 641.56 far exceeds the DCF anchor and Street mean / Evercore -> realistic near-term objective is the -500 zone; 4wk 459.74 is the trade target. Executes at the next US open 07-10 as a GTC limit, expires 07-15 (spans 07-14 CPI — acceptable: a CPI-driven dip to 411 is a welcome fill). f=0.30 (calib degenerate, L5); L8 pending next open, reprice if the open gaps >~1.5%. · news |
| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing | 436.96 | HOLD | — | 426.80 | n/a | 477.59 | 493.86 | Hold the 296-sh position (avg 438.02) through TSMC's Q2 earnings + analyst meeting on 07-16 (4 trading days out; catalyst-aware hold, no pre-trim). Conviction faded on the same FailedBreakdown_Up_20D cell but there is no signal-based sell: close 436.96 (~flat, -0.24%) sits ABOVE the model stop 426.80, Target_12Week 493.86 is positive (+13.0%), no Exit_Warning, not PROFIT_ARMED (underwater, T12_Progress 88.48%). News CONFIRMS hold — Q2 guide -40.2B, GM 65.5-67.5%, EPS +52.6% YoY, Citi PT raised to NTwafer price hikes on ~75% of revenue, likely full-year guidance/capex upgrade at the meeting. Raise the monitored stop 425..80 (model). L2 exit arms only on a decisive break of 426.80 WITH a negative 12wk. · news |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
2 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
0.000 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
24 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.