Recommendations
1 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DELL | Dell Technologies Inc | 431.97 | BUY — QUEUED @450.88 | 450.88 | 351.50 | 510.51 (+13.2%) | 649.65 (+44.1%) | 615.56 (+36.5%) | Dell flips to a fresh STRONG BUY on MomentumContinuation_Up (Buy_Rank #1, conv 78) with a self-limiting buy-STOP above market at 450.88 (close 431.97, +4.4% away) -> it fills only if momentum resumes, so no chase (UT-6/L1). Quality gate PASSES (F-Score 8, FAIR_VALUE) so the new entry is allowed, but the name is priced above intrinsic (MoS_FV -2.50 -> val_adj -10, adj conv 68) and Street is cautious: avg PT (~+12% from close) yet shares -8.7% over 30d and UBS says the 2026 near-doubling caps further upside -> news NEUTRAL, the stop-entry structure is the right hedge. Sized 0.6695*1M*0.20=133,900 x0.75 size-mod (MoS in -3..-1) = 100,425 ->. Stop 351.50 is wide (3 ATR, -22%). Executes next US open 07-09 as a GTC buy-stop, expires 07-14 (=CPI day). CAVEATS: model 4wk 649.65 / 12wk 615.56 both exceed DCF & Street anchor (annotate); 4wk target sits ABOVE the 12wk (model inconsistency); PROPOSED-P1 (inert) flags MomentumContinuation_Up as a weak 1wk cell (0/3, -18.9% overshoot) -> watch the fill. f=0.30 (calib degenerate, L5). L8: pending next open, reprice if the open gaps >~1.5%. · news |
| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing | 436.98 | HOLD | — | 425.67 | n/a | 482.23 | 499.70 | Hold the 296-sh starter (avg 438.02) through Q2 earnings 07-16 (5 trading days out; catalyst-aware hold, no pre-trim). Signal recovered WATCH 49 -> HOLD 54 on the same FailedBreakdown_Up_20D cell; close 436.98 (~flat, -0.24%) sits ABOVE the raised model stop 425.67, Target_12Week 499.70 is positive (+14.4%), no Exit_Warning, not PROFIT_ARMED (T12_Progress 87.45% <90 and underwater). No signal-based sell (CLAUDE.md 9). News CONFIRMS hold: TSMC Q2 guide -40.2B, GM 65.5-67.5%, EPS +52.6% YoY, Citi PT raise on AI outlook, expected to upgrade 2026 guidance. Raise the monitored stop 419..67 (model). L2 exit arms only on a decisive break of 425.67 WITH a negative 12wk. · news |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
2 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
0.000 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
24 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.