Recommendations
1 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| SNOW | Snowflake Inc. | 262.74 | BUY — QUEUED @241.73 | 241.73 | 230.10 | 246.92 (+2.1%) | 259.03 (+7.2%) | 374.40 (+54.9%) | AI-data leader on the book's most reliable buy cell (PullbackBuy_VWAP), conviction climbing, Buy_Rank #2: Street avg PT (+17.9%), 87% Buy of 52 analysts, fair value lifted.5 post-Summit on Cortex/CoCo AI workloads, revenue +33.5% YoY, BofA Top-Q3 idea. Name is extended (close 262.74, RSI 69.6, ED -1.81 ATR) so queue a GTC buy-limit at the model pullback entry 241.73 -> fills only on an ~8% dip (self-limiting, no chase) which keeps it compliant with the overlay's 'no new leverage into the 07-08 FOMC print'. Supersedes the 07-07 240.65 buy-limit that never filled (reprice, +1.08). NA valuation (DCF 112 not an anchor for hyper-growth SaaS) -> val_adj 0, gate off. f=0.30 (calib degenerate, L5). 12wk 374 exceeds DCF anchor. Sized 0.6695*1M*0.20=133,900 ->; executes next open 07-08, expires 07-13. · news |
| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing | 432.57 | HOLD | — | 419.90 | n/a | 483.25 | 501.74 | Hold the freshly-filled 296-sh starter (07-07 451.79 buy-limit filled at 438.02) through Q2 earnings 07-16. Day-1 fade STRONG BUY 76 -> WATCH 49 (conv -27) on the L1 FailedBreakdown_Up_20D whipsaw cell, but NO signal-based sell reason (CLAUDE.md 9): WATCH is not a SELL label, close 432.57 sits ABOVE the live model stop 419.90, Target_12Week 501.74 is positive (+16%), no Exit_Warning, not PROFIT_ARMED (underwater -1.2% -> profit-take/conviction-collapse ticks apply only to armed names). News confirms hold: TSMC Q2 guide -40.2B above consensus, EPS +52.6% YoY, Barclays OW PT Reset the monitored stop from the stale queue-relative 438.91 (phantom breach) to the model 419.90 anchored on the 438.02 fill. L2 exit arms only on a decisive break of 419.90 WITH a negative 12wk. · news |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
0 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
0.000 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
24 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.