Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing | 421.58 | HOLD | — | 426.80⚠ | n/a | n/a | 456.17 | Hold the 296-sh position (avg 438.02, now -3.75%, close 421.58) through TSMC's Q2 earnings + analyst meeting on 07-16 (~2 trading days out; catalyst-aware hold). The anchor row printed NO TRADE (conviction collapsed, 'Consensus conflict + low conviction') and the monitor flags a breach of the recorded stop 426.80, BUT the break is a shallow 0.28-ATR nick ((426.80-421.58)/18.4) and Target_12Week 456.17 is POSITIVE (+8.2%): the L2 exit requires a stop-break WITH a negative 12wk and there is no confirmed lower-high, so no trim/exit arms. PROFIT_ARMED prints (T12_Progress 92.42%) but the position is underwater (Gain_ATR -0.89) -> a profit-take would bank a loss, not applicable. Per catalyst-aware doctrine + the NBIS trim-discipline lesson, do NOT pre-trim a sub-0.3-ATR nick into a print the market gives ~94.5% beat odds / +16% base-case upside. News CONFIRMS hold: Q2 guide -40.2B, GM 65.5-67.5%, ~32% YoY, capex raised to -56B, 17 buys/0 sells. Documented stop override (426.80 held) until the 07-16 open; exit on a post-earnings gap-down / confirmed lower-high / decisive break of the post-print low. · news |
| DELL | Dell Technologies Inc | 427.11 | HOLD | — | 420.12 | 436.15 | 457.23 | 608.63 | Hold the 222-sh position (avg 450.88, now -5.27%, close 427.11). HOLD conv rose on PullbackBuy_VWAP; close sits ~1.66% above the raised model stop 420.12, Target_12Week 608.63 is positive, no Exit_Warning, and it is NOT PROFIT_ARMED (Gain_ATR -0.87, underwater) -> no signal-based sell (CLAUDE.md 9); a conviction/drawdown fade on an underwater fresh position is deteriorating-but-held watch only. News confirms-hold: AI-server backlog, FY27 AI-server revenue, +250% YTD, dividend ex-07-21; UBS flags valuation stretched (caution, not a sell). Keep stop 420.12 (model slipped to 388.99 -> do not lower; ratchet discipline). L2 exit arms only on a decisive close below 420.12 WITH a negative 12wk. 12wk 608.63 exceeds the DCF anchor (annotate). L1/L8 applied. · news |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
3 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
0.000 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
24 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.