Recommendations
1 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| DELL | Dell Technologies Inc | 457.54 | ADD — QUEUED @419.03 | 419.03 | 420.12 | 432.06 (+3.1%) | 462.46 (+10.4%) | 651.99 (+55.6%) | DELL prints STRONG BUY - ADD conv 100 on PullbackBuy_VWAP with a AI-server backlog, FY27 EPS guide up, 19-up/0-down EPS revisions and a Street 12mo target - a genuinely strong AI-infrastructure name back above our cost. But it just popped +8% and closed 1.32 ATR above the model entry (RSI_DIV), so per no-chase (L6/UT-6) we queue the ADD at the 419.03 model entry rather than chase the pop; fills only on an ~8.4% pullback. Held-name ADD so quality gate N/A; val_adj -10 (MoS -3.06), size-mod 0.5x (MoS<=-3). Stop 420.12 (ratchet, do not lower to model 360.70). 12wk 651.99 exceeds DCF (growth-beyond-priced-in). Auto-withdraw if conv<65 or unfilled by 2026-07-17. · news |
| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing | 420.39 | HOLD | — | 426.80⚠ | n/a | n/a | 443.98 | Catalyst-aware HOLD into TSMC Q2 earnings + analyst meeting 2026-07-16 (1 td) - Street tilts strongly bullish (guide -40.2B, GM 65.5-67.5%, FY26 >30%, capex -56B, guidance/capex raise expected), news CONFIRMS hold. Row is NO TRADE conv 0 (2nd session) and close 420.39 sits 0.37 ATR below the 426.80 stop (2nd-session breach), but the L2 exit needs stop-break AND a negative 12wk - Target_12Week 443.98 is still +5.6%, so it does NOT arm; NBIS trim-discipline forbids pre-trimming a shallow nick into a positive catalyst. PROFIT_ARMED prints via T12_Progress 94.69 but the position is underwater (Gain_ATR -1.03) so no profit-take (arm-on-loss mislabel). Valuation GROWTH_PRICED_IN MoS -16 but the DCF anchor is broken (DCF vs price) -> G2 suppress, val-blind. FINAL catalyst-hold session: a post-earnings gap-down, confirmed lower-high / decisive break of the post-print low, or a 12wk flip negative arms the L2 exit at the 07-16 close / 07-17 open (do not re-defer, L3/UT-3). Keep stop 426.80. · news |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
3 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
0.134 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
24 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.