Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| DELL | Dell Technologies Inc | 412.68 | HOLD | — | 420.12⚠ | n/a | n/a | 588.07 | Hold DELL 347 (avg 439.41 after the 419.03 pullback-ADD filled; now -6.1%, close 412.68). Row flipped to NO TRADE (conv 0, 1st session, consensus conflict) and the monitor flags a fresh stop breach vs 420.12 (-1.77%), but the L2 exit needs a stop-break AND a negative 12wk and Target_12Week 588.07 is strongly positive (+42.5%), so it does NOT arm; not PROFIT_ARMED (underwater, Gain_ATR -0.72). News CONFIRMS hold: the -14% Wed 07-15 drop was a sector-wide AI-hardware valuation reset (not a demand breakdown; DELL +219% YTD, FY27 AI-server guide, Q1 rev +88% YoY), GF Securities cut to Hold on stretched valuation (caution not a break) -> exactly the stop-break whipsaw L2 protects against. ATR blew out to 37.37. Keep stop 420.12 (broken-and-armed; ratchet, do not lower to model 360.70). Escalation: a 2nd consecutive NO TRADE, a 12wk flip negative, or a decisive break of today's low arms the L2 exit at the next close. 12wk 588.07 exceeds DCF anchor (growth beyond priced-in). L1/L2/L4/L8 applied. · news |
| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing | 419.48 | HOLD | — | 426.80⚠ | n/a | n/a | 434.27 | Catalyst-aware HOLD into the TSMC Q2 earnings + analyst meeting on 2026-07-16 (pre-market, today) - Street tilts strongly bullish (guide -40.2B, GM 65.5-67.5%, FY-guidance + 2027-capex raise expected, consensus EPS), news CONFIRMS hold; L6 says don't sell into an expected-bullish print. Row is NO TRADE conv 0 (3rd consecutive session) with a 4th-session stop breach vs 426.80 (-1.72%), but the L2 exit needs stop-break AND a negative 12wk and Target_12Week 434.27 is still +3.5% (collapsing but positive), so it does NOT arm; PROFIT_ARMED prints (T12_Progress 96.59) but the position is underwater (Gain_ATR -1.07) so no profit-take (arm-on-loss mislabel). Valuation GROWTH_PRICED_IN MoS -16 but the DCF anchor is broken (DCF vs price) -> G2 suppress, val-blind. The settled 07-15 close is PRE the print; escalation fires at the post-print 07-16 close - a gap-down, a confirmed lower-high / decisive break of the post-print low, or a 12wk flip negative arms the L2 / sustained-NoTrade exit (do not re-defer beyond the print, L3/UT-3). Keep stop 426.80. L2/L4/L6/L8 applied. · news |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
3 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
0.134 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
24 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.