Recommendations
0 to acquire · 1 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing | 409.74 | SELL 90.04% | 409.74 | 375.56 | n/a | n/a | 411.26 (+0.4%) | Signal-based exit (L2): sell 90% of TSM ( @ ~409.74; 30-sh residual on model stop 375.56). After 3 consecutive NO TRADE sessions the post-TSMC-print 07-16 close flips to STRONG SELL - REDUCE (RallySell_BearTrend, Sell_Rank #1, conv 37, Portion 90.04%) - the exit both prior entries armed has fired. Decisive stop break (409.74 vs documented stop 426.80, -4.0%; and -2.3% vs pre-print 419.48 = a post-earnings gap-down, the market SOLD the Q2 print), and Target_12Week collapsed ->.26 = now +0.37% flat/dead. L2 fully satisfied (stop-break + dead 12wk + bearish signal). News NEUTRAL for the trade: TSMC Q2 was a blowout (rev +36% YoY, EPS +77%, GM 67.7%, FY26 guide >30%, capex -56B) but the stock sold the news after a +39.9% quarterly run - strong fundamentals already priced, price action rejected them; news does not cancel the signal exit. Valuation GROWTH_PRICED_IN MoS -16.05 but the DCF anchor is broken (DCF vs price) -> G2 suppress, val-blind, portion stays at model 90.04%. PROFIT_ARMED prints but the position is underwater (Gain_ATR -1.65) = arm-on-loss mislabel, not a profit-take. Execution pending next US open 2026-07-17; reprice if the open gaps >~1.5%. Estimates grade from the execution price. L2/L4/L5/L6/L8 applied. · news |
| DELL | Dell Technologies Inc | 391.38 | HOLD | — | 384.97 | n/a | n/a | 557.72 | Hold DELL 347 (avg 439.41, close 391.38, -10.93%). Row RECOVERED to HOLD (conv 49 from 0; signal flipped back to PullbackBuy_VWAP - the model sees a pullback-buy setup again), RSI 47.2 neutral. Monitor flags a stop breach vs 420.12 (-6.84%) but the L2 exit needs stop-break AND a negative 12wk and Target_12Week 557.72 is strongly positive (+42.5%), and the action is HOLD not NO TRADE/SELL (the 3-session NoTrade streak broke) -> L2 does NOT arm. News CONFIRMS hold: the -14% drop is a sector-wide AI-hardware valuation reset (UBS to Neutral on stretched valuation; a report Meta may lease surplus AI capacity; memory-cost margin pressure), not a demand breakdown (DELL +219% YTD) - exactly the whipsaw L2 protects against. TRAIL-RAISE not a trim: move the monitored stop from the stale 420.12 (now far above price, non-protective) DOWN to the model 384.97, a rational protective floor ~0.19 ATR below the close. Escalation: a decisive break of 384.97, a 12wk flip negative, or a 2nd consecutive NO TRADE arms the L2 exit at the next close. 12wk 557.72 exceeds DCF anchor (growth beyond priced-in). L1/L2/L4/L8 applied. · news |
| AAPL | Apple | 333.26 | BUY-STOP | 329.58 | 303.99 | n/a | 380.77 (+15.5%) | 395.57 (+20.0%) | Anticipate-slot NEAR-MISS, not queued (counterfactual watch, optional). AAPL printed BUY - ANTICIPATE (AnticipationUp_VCP, conv 73, entry 329.58, stop 303.99, 12wk 395.57 +18.7%) but only 1 of the last 3 snapshots (07-17 only; 07-16 WATCH, 07-15 NO TRADE) - fails the >=2-of-3 anticipate rule, so no 4th-slot buy-stop today. RSI 71.4 elevated; GROWTH_PRICED_IN MoS -3.02 with an understated DCF anchor ( < close 333, unreliable). Re-arms the anticipate slot if it prints ANTICIPATE again next session (would queue a GTC buy-stop at 329.58, 0.5x size). Logged direction none/optional so the counterfactual grader prices what not-queuing this VCP breakout costs (mirrors the LRCX/SNDK/ASML anticipate-miss pattern). |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
5 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.299 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
24 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.