Recommendations
1 to acquire · 1 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing | 398.37 | SELL 88.72% | 398.37 | 380.00 | n/a | 403.50 (+1.3%) | 383.29 (-3.8%) | Complete the armed L2 exit: sell 236 more of TSM (reduce -sh residual on stop 380.00). The prior 07-17 SELL 90% only PARTIALLY executed - the auto-executor sold just @ 392.12, leaving 266 held - so the de-risk is incomplete and per L3/UT-3 escalate rather than re-defer. The bear case has STRENGTHENED: row is bearish AVOID/RallySell_BearTrend (conv 49), Target_12Week flipped from +0.4% flat (07-17) to -3.8% NEGATIVE (383.29 vs close 398.37), and the close is a decisive break of the documented 426.80 stop (GainATR -2.15, -9.05% underwater). L2 fully satisfied (stop-break + negative 12wk + bearish signal). Keep a 30-sh residual (TSMC's record Q2 warrants a small tail; close 398.37 is still above EMA200 359.04 so not a full below-EMA200 exit) on stop 380.00 (close - 1xATR). News NEUTRAL for the trade: TSMC Q2 was a blowout (rev +36% YoY, EPS +77%, HPC 66%, + Arizona, FY26 guide >40%) but the stock SOLD the news (-2.77% post-print, still sliding) - fundamentals already priced, price action rejected them; news does not cancel the signal exit. Valuation GROWTH_PRICED_IN MoS -16.05 but DCF is broken -> G2 suppress, val-blind. PROFIT_ARMED prints but underwater (GainATR -2.15) = arm-on-loss mislabel, not a profit-take. Execution pending next US open 2026-07-20; reprice if the open gaps >~1.5%; grade from the execution price. Proceeds L2/L3/L4/L5/L6/L8 applied. · news |
| DELL | Dell Technologies Inc | 396.34 | HOLD | — | 384.97 | n/a | n/a | 564.78 | Hold DELL 347 (avg 439.41, close 396.34, -9.8%). Row is HOLD (conv 49, signal FailedBreakdown_Up_20D), RSI 48.35 neutral, no Exit_Warning; close is above the trailed stop 384.97 and well above EMA200 235.83. L2 does NOT arm - Target_12Week 564.78 is strongly positive (+42.5%) and the action is HOLD not NO TRADE/SELL (the NoTrade streak stays broken). News CONFIRMS hold: the -14% sector drop is an AI-hardware valuation reset (UBS to Neutral on stretched valuation, a report Meta may lease surplus AI capacity, memory-cost margin pressure), not a demand breakdown (DELL +219% YTD) - exactly the whipsaw L2 protects against. Keep stop 384.97 (ratchet - do not lower to the model 368.14). Escalation: a decisive break of 384.97, a 12wk flip negative, or a 2nd consecutive NO TRADE arms the L2 exit at the next close. 12wk 564.78 exceeds DCF anchor (growth beyond priced-in). L1/L2/L4/L8 applied. · news |
| AAPL | Apple | 333.74 | BUY-STOP — QUEUED @335.48 | 335.48 | 311.42 | 349.92 (+4.3%) | 383.61 (+14.3%) | 402.61 (+20.0%) | Anticipate-slot ARMED (4th slot, not one of the <=3 ACQUIRE): AAPL printed BUY - ANTICIPATE (AnticipationUp_VCP, conv 73) in 2 of the last 3 snapshots (07-17 + 07-18; 07-16 WATCH), clearing the >=2-of-3 rule + conv>=55 floor - it was a 1/3 near-miss on 07-17 and has now re-armed. Quality gate PASS (Quality_Pass=True). Queue a GTC buy-STOP at the model entry 335.48 (above the 333.74 close) so it fills only on strength - self-limiting, keeps the no-chase rule strict. Sizing: x 0.20 buy_pct x 0.50 Portion = normal, x 0.5 (anticipate slot) x 0.5 (size-mod, MoS -3.02 <= -3) = -> @ 335.48. News CONFIRMS the breakout thesis: Citi raised PT to (Buy, 07-13), iPhone 18 launch in Sept, WWDC-2026 AI reframing (Morgan Stanley key catalyst), all-time Services revenue record, up ~20% YTD near new highs. val_adj -10 (MoS -3.02 -> round x5 = -15, clamped -10) -> adj conv. Estimates f=0.30 vs the 335.48 fill: 1wk ~349.92 (+4.3%), 4wk 383.61 (Target, +14.4%), 12wk 402.61 (+20.0%) - 12wk exceeds DCF anchor (understated/unreliable; growth beyond priced-in). Stop 311.42. expires_on 2026-07-22 (anchor + 3 sessions); auto-withdraw if conv <65 or unfilled. Catalyst: AAPL Q3 earnings 07-30 (~8 td, beyond the fill window). L1/L4/L8 applied. · news |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
6 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.299 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
24 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.