Recommendations
0 to acquire · 1 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing | 402.30 | SELL 87.29% | 402.30 | 385.00 | n/a | n/a | 377.71 (-6.1%) | Cut the loss on TSM: sell 206 of and keep only a 30-share tail. TSMC's Q2 was a genuine blowout - record revenue, profit +77% and full-year growth guidance lifted above 40% with Arizona spending raised to - but the market has spent five sessions selling that news, knocking the shares ~7% from the print on fears that the -64B capex bill compresses margins. Our own forward view has now flipped decisively negative: the 12-week projection has slid ->, i.e. 6% BELOW today's price, while the stock sits 5.7% under its protective stop and 8.2% underwater on cost. Strong fundamentals the tape refuses to pay for are not a reason to keep holding a broken chart, so we step out and leave a small tail in case the AI cycle reasserts. OPERATIONAL: third re-fire of the same armed exit - the 07-17 and 07-18 proposals each executed as only, so the de-risk is still incomplete; UT-11/L3/UT-3 say escalate the residual now, do not re-defer. L2 fully satisfied (decisive break of the 426.80 stop + negative 12wk + bearish/absent signal); row label is NO TRADE (conv 0, consensus conflict) but the label is not required. Residual on stop 385.00 (close - 1xATR); close 402.30 still above EMA200 359.77 so not a full below-EMA200 exit. Valuation val-blind: DCF vs price is broken -> G2 suppress, MoS -16.05 not applied. UT-9: PROFIT_ARMED prints (T12_Progress 106.51) on a -8.15% underwater position (Gain_ATR -2.10) = arm-on-loss mislabel, inert - this is a loss-cut, not a profit-take. Estimates: 1wk/4wk n/a (no Target_Price on a NoTrade row; model band 388.83-447.08), 12wk 377.71 (-6.1%); f=0.30 per L5 (calib_1w -0.299 degenerate). Execution pending the next US open 2026-07-21; reprice if the open gaps >~1.5%; grade from the execution price. L2/L3/L4/L5/L6/L8, UT-3/UT-9/UT-11 applied. · news |
| DELL | Dell Technologies Inc | 381.88 | HOLD | — | 384.97⚠ | n/a | n/a | 544.18 | Keep all 347 Dell shares and hold the 384.97 stop. The position is uncomfortable - down 13% from our 439.41 average and the shares closed a fraction (0.8%) below our stop - but the damage is a sector-wide repricing of AI hardware, not a break in Dell's business: revenue grew 88% year over year last quarter, AI-server sales alone were, and management guides to of AI servers on -169B of total revenue this fiscal year. What knocked the stock was UBS moving to Neutral on valuation and worries that GPU-heavy servers dilute margins (gross margin 18% vs 21%), after a 250% year-to-date run. Our own 12-week projection still points to 544, some 42% above today's price, and the model is again reading a pullback-buy setup rather than a breakdown - so this is a drawdown to sit through, not a position to dump into the reset. OPERATIONAL: the 0.8% stop breach is ~0.09 ATR on a 32.70 ATR - NOT decisive - and L2 requires a stop-break AND a negative 12wk; 12wk is strongly positive (+42.5%), action is HOLD (no NoTrade streak), close is far above EMA200 237.55 and above EMA50 366.46 -> exit does NOT arm. No Exit_Warning; conviction rose. Keep stop 384.97 (ratchet - do not lower to the model 384.72). Escalation: a decisive break below ~368.6 (384.97 - 0.5xATR), a 12wk flip negative, or 2 consecutive NO TRADE arms the L2 exit at the next close. UT-10: NO ADD - do not pyramid a PullbackBuy_VWAP into an already-underwater name in a high-ATR sector reset (both prior ADDs graded stop_hit). 12wk 544.18 exceeds DCF anchor (growth beyond priced-in); 1wk/4wk n/a (HOLD, no model target); model band 338.37-441.04. L1/L2/L4/L8, UT-10 applied. · news |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
7 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.299 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
24 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.