Recommendations
0 to acquire · 1 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing | 424.61 | SELL 50% | 424.61 | 406.37 | n/a | n/a | 407.07 (-4.1%) | TSMC's exit case has half-repaired, so we take profits on the de-risk rather than complete it: after a +5.5% session the shares closed at 424.61, back above the 50-day average and only 0.5% under our stop, which is no longer a decisive break - but the model's 12-week view (407.07) is still 4.1% BELOW the price and the engine still reads the name bearishly (AVOID, conviction 64 and rising) on a position we are underwater on. Q2 was a blowout (EPS +74.5%, FY26 revenue growth guided above 40%) yet the rally is a sector-wide AI bid on Taiwan's +83.6% US export orders, not a TSMC re-rating, and the capex raise to -64B is a real margin overhang. So: halve the position into strength at a price 5.5% better than the level the previous verdict was chasing, and keep the other half working with a raised stop. Operational: L2 re-tested and found half-satisfied (stop-break leg healed, negative-12wk leg survives) -> exit SCALED from a full reduce-to-30-residual down to a 50% trim; L3/UT-11 escalation of a FOURTH consecutive 30-share partial fill (txn ustech-20260722-0001) - act at the right size, do not drip a fifth session; G2 SUPPRESSES the valuation amplify (DCF vs price is ~10x broken) so the MoS<=-3 tier bump is deliberately NOT applied; UT-9 - PROFIT_ARMED prints at T12_Progress 104.31 on a -3.06% underwater position (Gain_ATR -0.74) = arm-on-loss mislabel, inert, this is a loss-trim not a profit-take; L5 f=0.30 (calib -0.299 degenerate); L6 no post-rebound chase. Residual on a raised stop 406.37 (close - 1xATR, ratcheted up from 385.00). Proceeds. · news |
| DELL | Dell Technologies Inc | 404.15 | HOLD | — | 388.46 | n/a | 466.92 | 568.91 | Keep the full Dell position and lift the stop. The shares rebounded 5.8% to 404.15, which clears last session's stop breach entirely, and the model's read has strengthened for a fourth straight day (conviction, signal flipped to a bullish family) with a 12-week view of 568.91 - roughly 41% above the current price. The business case is intact rather than broken: AI-server revenue of was up 757% year-on-year with a backlog, and the drawdown that put us 8% underwater was a sector-wide valuation reset on memory-cost margin worries, not a demand break. Fair value is neutral here. Operational: no exit arms - L2 needs a stop break AND a negative 12wk and neither holds; no PROFIT_ARMED and the position is underwater so no profit-take path; RAISE stop 384..46 (model stop, ratchet up only, never down); escalation triggers = a decisive close below ~372.7, a 12wk flip negative, or 2 consecutive NO TRADE; UT-10 explicitly NO ADD - do not pyramid into a name 8% underwater on a 31.4 ATR after one bounce session; 12wk 568.91 exceeds the DCF anchor (projection assumes growth beyond priced-in). dividend went ex 07-21 (pays 07-31) - a ~0.16% mechanical drag already in the close, not a signal. · news |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 207.29 | NO ACTION | 207.29 | 203.79 | 211.49 (+2.0%) | 221.29 (+6.8%) | 199.99 (-3.5%) | Nvidia was the book's strongest buy candidate today and we still passed. It topped the buy ranking at conviction 69 and, unusually, was not extended - the model entry sits right at the 207.29 close. But it fails on two counts: the shares already trade above what our valuation work says the growth justifies (margin of safety -2.3, a 10-point conviction haircut that drops it to 59, under our 65 bar), and - decisively - the model's own 12-week projection of 199.99 is BELOW today's price, so we would be buying into a negative forward view. This signal family is also this book's weakest historical performer. Watch it: a 12-week view that turns positive would make this a genuine candidate at the same entry. Operational: ledgered direction:none / optional:true so the counterfactual grader prices what the quality-and-valuation floor cost (closes UT-12 backlog item (iii)); L1/UT-12 discount on FailedBreakdown_Up_20D (own cell n=1, stop-first 1.0); 1wk shown at f=0.30 per L5. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
8 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.299 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
24 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.