Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| DELL | Dell Technologies Inc | 441.80 | HOLD | — | 413.77 | n/a | 510.90 | 629.56 | Keep the full Dell position and lift the stop - the drawdown that put us underwater has fully reversed. Dell jumped ~10% on 07-22 (to 441.80) on broadening AI-server demand and better pricing, after Wedbush flagged Super Micro's strong preliminary gross margins as a read-through for the whole AI-hardware chain; management's raised FY27 outlook ( revenue including AI servers on a backlog) backs it up. The position is now marginally ABOVE our 439.41 cost (Gain_ATR +0.07 from -1.76 a week ago), conviction has climbed, the signal is the bullish FailedBreakdown family, and the 12-week view of 629.56 sits ~42% above the price - so this is a winner to hold, not a position to trim. OPERATIONAL: no exit arms (no stop break, 12wk strongly positive, no PROFIT_ARMED - the underwater condition cleared); RAISE stop 388..77 (model stop, ratchet up only, never down; ~0.81 ATR / 6.3% below close). Escalation = a decisive close below ~396.5 (413.77 - 0.5xATR), a 12wk flip negative, or 2 consecutive NO TRADE arms the L2 exit. UT-10: NO ADD - do not pyramid a fully-recovered name on a 34.5 ATR after a +9% day. 12wk 629.56 exceeds the DCF anchor (growth beyond priced-in); 4wk model target 510.90; 1wk n/a (HOLD, no actionable entry); model band 374.72-458.11. L1/L4/L8, UT-10 applied. · news |
| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing | 421.21 | HOLD | — | 406.37 | n/a | n/a | 406.72 | Hold the residual half of TSMC on its 406.37 stop - the exit case did not mature into a completion this session. Yesterday we halved the position into a +5.5% rebound; today the shares slipped 0.8% to 421.21 and the engine's bearish read actually WEAKENED (conviction. The model's 12-week view (406.72) is still ~3.4% below the price and the label is still AVOID, so the position stays de-risked - but our rule to complete the exit needs a decisive break of the 406.37 stop AND a negative 12wk, and the stop is not broken (price is 1.2% above it). A falling bearish conviction on an already-halved residual is not a fresh trigger, so we let the other half work rather than sell into weakness. Q2 was a blowout (net profit +77% YoY, FY26 growth guide raised above 40%), but the capex raise to -64B is the margin/AI-spend overhang the tape keeps discounting - neutral either way, no override. OPERATIONAL: L2 re-tested - only the negative-12wk leg holds, the stop-break leg does not -> no completion. G2 SUPPRESSES the valuation amplify (DCF vs price ~9x broken) so the MoS -14.43 is val-blind. UT-9: PROFIT_ARMED (T12_Progress 103.56) on a -3.84% underwater position (Gain_ATR -1.01) = arm-on-loss mislabel, inert - this is a loss-residual, not a profit-take. Keep stop 406.37 (close-1xATR from the 07-22 trim, ratchet); a decisive close below 406.37 with a still-negative 12wk completes the exit. L2/L4/L5/L6/L8, UT-9 applied. · news |
| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices, Inc | 552.33 | NO ACTION | 552.33 | 526.88 | 575.09 (+4.1%) | 628.19 (+13.7%) | 733.54 (+32.8%) | AMD was the book's best-looking buy today and we still passed. It topped the ranking at conviction 76 and, unusually, was NOT extended - the model entry sits right at the 552.33 close, a clean risk-defined setup. But it fails the quality screen outright: our F-Score/FCF quality gate reads FALSE, which hard-blocks a NEW entry regardless of conviction, and the valuation work says the shares already trade well beyond what the growth justifies (margin of safety -17.6, a 10-point conviction haircut). The signal family (FailedBreakdown_Up_20D) is also this book's weakest historical performer. Clean entry, top conviction, killed by the quality gate. Watch it: if the quality inputs improve (or the gate is confirmed miscalibrated) this becomes a genuine candidate at the same entry. OPERATIONAL: ledgered direction:none / optional:true so the counterfactual grader prices what the quality gate cost (closes UT-12 backlog item (iii) - AMD has printed a gate-blocked high Buy_Rank repeatedly); 1wk shown at f=0.30 per L5. L1/UT-12 applied. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
9 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
0.134 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
24 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.