Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DELL | Dell Technologies Inc | 440.97 | HOLD | — | 444.14⚠ | n/a | 507.29 | 609.94 | Holding Dell through a shallow stop breach. The stock fell 3.69% to 440.97 on a day the rest of the book rose, closing 0.71% under our 444.14 stop - but that is less than a tenth of one day's trading range on a stock this volatile, and it recovered 2.3% off its intraday low, which held the 20-day average. The forward view is still strongly positive (12-week 609.94, +38.3%) and no exit warning has printed, so none of the four sell triggers fires. What did happen is a real rotation: money moved into the memory and chip-equipment suppliers Dell buys from (Micron, KLA, ASML, SanDisk all up 1-5%) and out of the server maker that pays those input costs - the same margin squeeze that already cut Dell's gross margin from 21% to 18%, with the resolving earnings print about two weeks away. That is a reason to hold a tight trigger, not to sell into noise. OPERATIONAL: L2 armed on ONE leg only (stop-break yes, 12wk +38.3% no) - not an exit. ADR-0020 erosion 4.45% (peak 444.14 vs engine live 424.39), under the 15% trigger and off for ustech; note the engine LOWERED its stop 440.51->424.39 while size did not shrink. Profit-take not armed (Gain_ATR -0.25, T12_Progress 72.3); UT-9 arm-on-loss guard relevant. Valuation amplify suppressed by G2 (4.3x DCF/EPV spread, DCF 485.61 above close). UT-10 binding - NO pullback ADD into this high-ATR reset (07-09/07-10/07-15 DELL ADDs all graded stop_hit). COMMITTED TRIGGER, no re-litigation: a SECOND consecutive settled close below 444.14, OR any settled close below EMA20 430.08, forces a mandatory 50% trim at the next open regardless of the 12wk leg. Engine stop 424.39 is the full-exit line on a decisive break. Stop HELD at 444.14 under the monotonic ratchet, never lowered. · news |
| NET | Cloudflare, Inc. | 306.97 | WATCH | 306.97 | 295.50 | 319.25 (+4.0%) | 347.89 (+13.3%) | 433.32 (+41.2%) | Passing on Cloudflare, and this time the signal itself is the reason. Conviction dropped from in a single session and the stock fell 1.2% while the market rose - after our valuation haircut that leaves an adjusted score of 58, seven points below the 65 threshold we require to buy anything. The business is genuinely strong (revenue +36% to, a record 986 net large-customer additions, AI machine traffic now over half the network, Morgan Stanley lifting its target to), but the balance sheet is the weakest in the book - a Piotroski score of 3 and a 0.29% free-cash-flow yield on a company that just raised 175bn of convertible debt - so the quality screen blocks a new position independently. This is a price-and-screen refusal, not a judgement on the business. Yesterday's identical refusal was vindicated: NET closed 306.97 against the 310.59 we would have paid, -1.17%, or -on the would-be size. OPERATIONAL: adj = 68 + (-10 val_adj, MoS capped) + 0 bias = 58 < 65 floor; Quality_Pass FALSE is a redundant second block, not the binding one. Ledgered as a floor+gate-blocked counterfactual per the 07-18 advisory (iii) so the gate's cumulative cost keeps accruing. Would-be size @306.97 = (0.5071 x x 20%, x0.5 MoS modulator), 5.1% of book. Estimates use f=0.30 (L5, 10th session; only 8 graded buys carry h_1w vs a 10 floor). 12wk 433.32 exceeds the DCF anchor of by 15.7x - projection assumes growth far beyond priced-in. L1 discounts the FailedBreakdown_Up_20D family; own-book cell n=2, hit_1w 0.5, stop-first 0.5, report-only. RE-ARM: conviction back over 75 (what it takes to clear the floor after the -10 val_adj), or a PullbackBuy_VWAP entry toward EMA20 282.53. CPI prints on the execution date with NET named at +/-3%. · news |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
14 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
0.494 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
53 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.