Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| DELL | Dell Technologies Inc | 484.50 | WATCH — queued order lapsed | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Queued buy @487.08 lapsed — closed 484.50 below the level; awaiting reprice at the next end-of-day run. Dell broke to a 52-week high, closing up 9.9% at after Super Micro guided FY2027 revenue to -72bn against a 5bn consensus - the market read that as the AI-server pie growing rather than Dell losing share, directly overturning the share-loss thesis that had knocked the stock down the day before. With a $43bn AI-server backlog and AI revenue up 757% last quarter, the position is now +7.9% and the model flipped from HOLD to BUY-ADD as conviction jumped. We are adding on further strength only, at half the model's size, because the shares have already converged onto our own DCF anchor and the late-August margin print is the unresolved risk. Operational: GTC buy-stop above the session high 484.71, so no fill without a new high and no cash committed otherwise; = 63.29% x 542 held = 343, halved by the MoS -3.02 size modulator; from. Position stop stays at the 444.14 ratchet for all post-fill (never lowered, and deliberately NOT raised - 1.14x ATR below the close is already tight, and tightening into day one of a breakout converts noise into an exit); defined risk on the add = 0.73% of. L1 applied as a discount not a veto - BreakoutUp_52W overshoots 4wk targets and the own-book cell is n=1/hit_1w 0.0, so read the +36.8% 4wk and +41.7% 12wk for direction, not magnitude (both exceed the DCF anchor). UT-10 tested and does not bind: it gates PullbackBuy_VWAP buy-LIMITS into an UNDERWATER name; this is a BreakoutUp_52W buy-STOP on a +7.86% position. Only the high-ATR leg holds (35.28 = 7.3% of price), which is why size is halved. f=0.30 per L5 (9 graded buys, below the 10 floor). Withdraw triggers: conviction <65, expiry 08-17 unfilled (reprice from the then-current snapshot, never republish @487.08), or a settled close below EMA20 435.27. · news |
| NET | Cloudflare, Inc. | 311.45 | NO ACTION | 311.45 | 301.93 | 322.87 (+3.7%) | 349.53 (+12.2%) | 443.82 (+42.5%) | Cloudflare is the book's top-ranked buy candidate again - conviction rebounded, the stock is up 56.8% year-to-date and set a 52-week high on 08-10 after a Q2 beat-and-raise (revenue +35.9% to, billings +34.8%), with Morgan Stanley lifting its target to and BofA to We are still not buying it: our fundamental screen fails it outright on an F-Score of 3 and a 0.29% free-cash-flow yield, which is exactly the kind of richly-valued, cash-light balance sheet the screen exists to hold back. This is a price-and-screen refusal, not a business refusal. Operational: adj 74 CLEARS the 65 floor by 9 - the hard Quality_Pass gate is now the SOLE block, the reverse of 08-12 when conviction failed first. 15th consecutive session refused. Gate grading to date is roughly a wash: 08-11 block saved -, 08-12 block cost +on a would-be / / 5.1% position @ 311.45. Ledgered as a gate-blocked counterfactual per the 07-18 advisory (iii) so the gate's cumulative cost stays priced. val_adj -10 is the clamp floor; the -996 MoS is arithmetically meaningless on a degenerate EPV anchor and is not the operative constraint. · news |
| ASML | ASML Holding NV | 1810.07 | NO ACTION | 1810.07 | 1776.26 | 1850.65 (+2.2%) | 1945.32 (+7.5%) | 1860.20 (+2.8%) | ASML turned buy-rated for the first time in this window as the semicap complex rallied, but at conviction 69 it falls six points short of our action threshold once the valuation discount is applied - the shares are priced well beyond our intrinsic anchor. Applied Materials reports tonight and reads directly through to ASML's order book, so the disciplined move is to let the print land rather than buy into it. Operational: the only name in the book today refused PURELY on the conviction floor with Quality_Pass clean (TRUE, rank 15/31) - worth noting because it isolates the floor from the screen. Buy_Rank 3, entry 1810.07 at ED 0.00 (provenance-clean, no chase objection). The floor refusal and the Event Horizon advice agree independently (AMAT FQ3 AMC 08-13, add-after-print, +/-5%, reads to ASML). Re-arm: conviction 79+ (what it takes to clear 65 after val_adj -10), or a PullbackBuy_VWAP entry toward EMA20 1729.50. |
| COHR | Coherent Corp. | 355.64 | NO ACTION | 355.64 | 336.67 | 378.41 (+6.4%) | 431.54 (+21.3%) | 346.38 (-2.6%) | Coherent jumped 8.2% on sympathy with Lumentum's strong photonics results, then reported its own FQ4 after the close - a beat across the board on +34% revenue and improving gross margin - and promptly traded down about 4% in extended hours. Our reference price predates that print, the shares are priced far above our intrinsic anchor, and the company is burning free cash. Refused. Operational: refused three independent ways - adj 57 is eight below the 65 floor; Quality_Pass FALSE (F-Score 7 but FCF yield -0.81%, rank 22/31); and the news override is decisive because the 355.64 anchor close is stale by construction (pre-print). Today's +8.24% was a peer sympathy move, not COHR's own numbers. No re-arm until a post-print settled close re-prices the entry. · news |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 224.09 | BUY-STOP | 225.49 | 203.50 | 238.68 (+5.8%) | 269.47 (+19.5%) | 246.81 (+9.5%) | Nvidia set up again at the book's highest conviction of the day (93) as the whole AI-infrastructure complex rallied on an in-line July inflation print. Our anticipation slot deliberately requires the setup to hold for two consecutive sessions before we commit capital, and today is day one - so we are watching, not buying. A second confirming print arms a buy-stop that fills only on strength. Operational: ANTICIPATE slot INELIGIBLE - requires BUY - ANTICIPATE in >=2 of the last 3 snapshots and this is a day-1 print (WATCH/WATCH/ANTIC). Re-arm is now 1-of-2 satisfied; a second print arms the slot at the THEN-CURRENT Entry_Price, sized 0.5x a normal new-BUY - NEVER at the withdrawn 08-08 level of 224.39. Provenance note: that withdrawn buy-stop @224.39 WOULD have filled today (session high 225.10) - the first session it has graded against the book - but the withdrawal rule (conviction, below 65) was correctly read on correct data, and today is a NEW setup, not a vindication of the old card. Sibling cluster all ineligible on the same day-1 rule: TSM cv81, LITE cv78, NBIS cv78 - and L6 would independently refuse LITE and NBIS as post-earnings gap-chases (NBIS also prints ED -0.89, its 233.22 trigger blown through by a 259.20 close). NVDA's own Q2 is 08-26; 08-21 opex lands three sessions before it. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
14 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
0.134 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
53 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.