Recommendations
1 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 225.30 | BUY-STOP — QUEUED @225.76 | 225.76 | 206.05 | 237.58 (+5.2%) | 265.16 (+17.5%) | 252.32 (+11.8%) | Nvidia set up for a second consecutive session at the highest conviction this book has ever recorded (96, up from 93), and analysts have just raised their three-year earnings growth expectation from 33% to 44% a year on the view that hyperscaler AI spending was under-modelled - with a median price target of across 65 analysts. Crucially the stock did not gap on that news, it rose only 0.5%, so there is a real setup to buy rather than a spike to chase; and unlike every other buy candidate in the book today, Nvidia passes the quality screen outright at rank. We commit only on strength, at half the normal anticipation size, with risk capped at a third of a percent of the book. Operational: ANTICIPATE slot ARMED - eligibility verified 2-of-3 (08-12 WATCH cv54, 08-13 ANTIC cv93, 08-14 ANTIC cv96) and cv96 clears the 55 slot floor by 41. GTC buy-stop at the live snapshot Entry_Price 225.76, ED +0.07 = +0.20% above the 225.30 close - provenance-clean, no chase, and NEVER at the expired 08-08 level of 224.39. Sizing: 0.50 x x 20% =, x0.75 size modulator (MoS -2.52 in the -3..-1 band) =, x0.5 anticipate slot = -> = (3.73% of) against; caps non-binding. Defined risk 168 x (225.76-206.05) = = 0.33% of. 1wk uses f=0.30 per L5 (calib_1w 0.134, 9 graded buys below the 10 floor, 12th session). Both 4wk 265.16 and 12wk 252.32 exceed the DCF anchor 163.98 (by 61.7% and 53.9%) and the 12wk sits BELOW the 4wk - forward-curve inversion, second occurrence on this ticker, so read the 4wk as the trade objective. Horizon: queue expires 08-18, AHEAD of 08-19 FOMC minutes, 08-21 opex and the 08-26 Q2 print - a clean window by construction. Bear counterpoint on the record: Burry's vendor-financing critique of the ~$500bn chip-buyer financing consortium, which is why this is 3.7% and not 7.5%. AnticipationUp_VCP|buy is n=1 in this book's scorecard (report-only, bias 0). Auto-withdraw if conviction <65, on expiry unfilled (reprice from the then-current snapshot), or on a settled close below EMA20 212.37. · news |
| DELL | Dell Technologies Inc | 494.51 | HOLD | 489.11 | 444.14 | n/a | 693.87 (+41.9%) | 704.68 (+44.1%) | Dell added another 2.1% and printed a fresh all-time high of as the AI-server demand story kept re-rating, taking the position to +7.2% and conviction up again from with no exit warning of any kind - nothing in the signal, risk, valuation or profit-take framework originates a sell, so the position is held in full at. The one blemish worth watching is the shape of the day: the stock closed 3.8% off its high in the bottom third of the range, the first bar of this move where sellers showed up. Operational: the 08-13 ADD queue FILLED but gapped through - opened 499.68, +2.59% above the 487.08 trigger, slippage, blended cost 449.1885 -> 461.298. All four origination classes tested and fail: signal HOLD / no Exit_Warning / conviction rising; ADR-0020 erosion 12.93% (engine 386.73 vs peak 444.14) under the 15% trigger and the rule is off for this book (and would misfire - price is 27.9% ABOVE the engine stop on a winner); valuation MoS -3.02 crosses the tier threshold but cannot originate and G2 suppresses the amplify on a 4.3x DCF/EPV spread; ADR-0012 NOT armed - true Gain_ATR 0.97 (from the JSON's 461.298 cost, NOT the CSV's stale 1.33 - scan/executor race, UT-7) vs a 3.0 arm, T12_Progress 70.18 vs 90, so no trail-raise obligation either. Stop HELD at the 444.14 ratchet under the monotonic rule, NOT raised: 1.48x ATR below the close is already tight on a 6.9%-ATR name and a 2.0xATR chandelier off the new 514.00 high computes to only 445.75, a meaningless 0.36% raise. Disclosed honestly: the gap-fill pushed blended cost ABOVE the stop, so 444.14 now exits at -3.72% on cost despite the position being +7.20% - that widening came from the execution, not a decision. Escalation: settled close below EMA20 440.91 reopens the trail-raise; settled close above 514.00 moves the ratchet to the 2.0xATR chandelier off the new high. Never lowered. Engine prints Entry_Price 489.11 as a buy-stop but is 0.0 - no ADD proposed today. · news |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
15 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
0.134 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
53 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.