Recommendations
2 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing C | 428.91 | BUY | 428.91 | 419.45 | 434.69 (+1.3%) | 448.19 (+4.5%) | 416.00 (-3.0%) | TSMC is the highest-conviction fresh signal in the book: it broke out of a three-session stall to a Buy_Rank #1 STRONG BUY on the back of a monthly sales update showing robust AI demand, record 2026 capex guidance of -64bn and full-year revenue growth above 40%. The technical setup is clean rather than stretched - the close sits in a perfect EMA10>20>50>200 bull stack with RSI 57, so this is an entry into strength, not a chase. Valuation is the offset: at a deeply negative margin of safety the position is deliberately taken at half size. Raw conviction 86, val_adj -10 (MoS -13.82) -> adjusted 76. Size mod 0.5x (MoS <= -3). Sizing: 0.6695 x equity x 20% buy_pct =, x0.5 = / 428.91 = =. Entry range 426.50-431.32 (+/-0.25 ATR). Stop 419.45 = -2.21% (0.98 ATR); 4wk target 448.19 = +4.49%, R:R 2.03:1. CAVEAT: Target_12Week 416.00 is BELOW the entry (-3.01%) - treat this as a 4-week swing, not a 12-week hold, and it is a second reason the size is halved. DCF_per_share 46.21 is a unit-mismatch artifact on the ADR (systemic finding 2), so the DCF anchor annotation is not meaningful here. Book has sold TSM twice before (07-23 @414.91, 08-07 @409.54); re-entry is 3.4% above the last exit. L7: TSM likely also signals in us/ussemicon - execute once across books. · news |
| MU | Micron Technology, Inc. | 1016.59 | ADD | 1016.59 | 969.00 | 1043.75 (+2.7%) | 1107.13 (+8.9%) | 1134.12 (+11.6%) | A measured pyramid onto a one-day-old winner that the news flow has since validated. Micron gapped +6.1% as the NAND/DRAM pricing cycle re-accelerated, with Dell's record $95bn AI-server backlog cited as a direct demand driver - which is notable because Dell is already this book's largest holding, so the same catalyst is now paying twice. Micron carries the book's #1 quality rank and its 12-week projection points 11.6% higher. The add is kept small and risk-defined because conviction printed flat rather than rising. Raw 76, val_adj -6 (MoS -1.16) -> adjusted 70. Held @ 971.06 (+4.69%, filled at this morning's open). ADD sizing (held-name path): 50.71% x = 40.6, x0.75 size mod = =. Entry range 1005.27-1027.91. Stop 969.00 = -4.68%; 4wk 1107.13 = +8.91%, R:R 1.90:1. 12wk 1134.12 exceeds DCF anchor 772.94 - projection assumes growth beyond priced-in. ASSUMPTION STATED: the scan CSV was written at 06:00:17 before the 06:00:35 executor fill, so it prints MU as unheld (Held=N) with a fresh-entry; per UT-7 the 80-share holding from input/ustechportfolio.json governs and the conservative ADD formula is used rather than the fresh-entry. L6 check passed: MU FQ4 earnings are 09-30, so this is a sector re-rating not a post-earnings gap; ATR expanded only +8.6% (41.7->45.3), well short of the UT-10 spike bar. L7: MU also signals in us/ussemicon - execute once across books. · news |
| SNDK | Sandisk Corporation | 1740.00 | NO ACTION | 1740.00 | 1581.00 | 1807.43 (+3.9%) | 1964.76 (+12.9%) | 1869.50 (+7.4%) | Declined despite clearing the conviction floor: SanDisk rose 11.9% in a single session with average true range expanding 19%, and the model offers only a market order at the closing print - which means buying the top tick of a double-digit gap. The thesis is real and identical to Micron's, but the book is expressing it through the Micron add at a risk-defined level instead of paying up here. Adjusted conviction 70 (raw 76, val_adj -6) clears the 65 floor, so this is a learnings block, not a signal block: L6 (no gap-chase) + UT-10 (no entry at spiking ATR). Ledgered optional so the counterfactual grader prices the decline. Note the counterfactual cell no_chase_queue (n=13, median 4wk +6.30%) currently reads COST, i.e. declining chases has been costing this book - that is advisory and is deliberately not blended, but if it persists it belongs in the next learnings review. Re-arm trigger: a pullback that prints a PullbackBuy_VWAP limit entry, or two consecutive orderly closes with ATR back under ~100. · news |
| AVGO | Broadcom Inc | 357.89 | WATCH | 357.89 | 320.09 | 362.58 (+1.3%) | 373.55 (+4.4%) | 281.48 (-21.4%) | Broadcom flipped to a buy signal after four straight AVOID prints, but it is a falling-knife setup rather than a turn: the stock trades below every moving average including the 200-day, RSI is 38, and the model's own 12-week projection sits 21.3% BELOW the current price. Buying something whose forward view is that negative is not a swing entry. Adjusted conviction lands exactly on the 65 floor (raw 75, val_adj -10) with no margin, and the fourth slot does not exist anyway. Re-arm trigger: a reclaim of EMA50 (382.84) with a non-negative Target_12Week. |
| PLTR | Palantir Technologies Inc. | 174.33 | HOLD | 176.75 | 167.07 | 181.07 (+2.4%) | 191.14 (+8.1%) | 244.49 (+38.3%) | No add. The 387-share position bought at this morning's open is 0.84% underwater and conviction has already faded from in one session. Stacking more onto a name priced far beyond any intrinsic anchor, in a signal family this book keeps losing money on, is not a risk the position budget should take. Adjusted conviction 56 (raw 71, val_adj -10 for MoS -13.41, scorecard_bias -5 for PullbackBuy_VWAP at 0.25/0.25 on n=5) is nine points under the 65 floor. Holding the position; stop set at the model line 167.07 (-4.16%), which clears the monitor's missing-stop warning. Re-arm: conviction back above 80 with a hold above VWAP. |
| MSFT | Microsoft Corp | 499.70 | WATCH | 496.34 | 484.74 | 501.51 (+1.0%) | 513.58 (+3.5%) | 639.05 (+28.8%) | Blocked twice over. Microsoft fails the F-Score/FCF quality screen, which is a hard block on new entries, and its adjusted conviction of 50 is fifteen points under the floor anyway after the valuation haircut and the -5 penalty its signal family has earned on this book's own record. Raw 64, val_adj -9, bias -5. |
| SAP | SAP AE | 215.11 | WATCH | 213.61 | 207.35 | 216.40 (+1.3%) | 222.92 (+4.4%) | 285.21 (+33.5%) | Fails the F-Score/FCF quality screen, which hard-blocks a new entry, and lands at 60 adjusted - five points short of the floor - after the valuation haircut and the PullbackBuy_VWAP family penalty. Fourth consecutive session blocked on the same gate. Raw 71, val_adj -6, bias -5. |
| SNOW | Snowflake Inc. | 337.18 | WATCH | 337.18 | 324.69 | 352.17 (+4.4%) | 387.14 (+14.8%) | 469.64 (+39.3%) | Fails the F-Score/FCF quality screen - a hard block on new entries - and at 62 adjusted it is under the floor regardless. Conviction has also collapsed from in a single session as the signal degraded from a clean 20-day breakout to a failed-breakdown reversal, so the case is weaker than yesterday's, not stronger. Raw 71, val_adj -9. |
| IREN | IREN Limited | 44.68 | WATCH | 44.68 | 41.00 | 46.61 (+4.3%) | 51.12 (+14.4%) | 36.49 (-18.3%) | Fails the quality screen, is the only name in the book flagged OVERVALUED_VS_RI, sits below its 200-day average, and carries a 12-week projection 18% below the current price after a 20% four-session run. Adjusted conviction 57 is under the floor. Nothing here to take. |
| DELL | Dell Technologies Inc | 524.14 | HOLD | 524.14 | 452.74 | 591.27 (+12.8%) | 748.57 (+42.8%) | 725.33 (+38.4%) | Hold and trail. Dell is the book's engine: a record $95bn AI-server backlog - more than twice a quarter's revenue - drove management to lift full-year revenue guidance from $167bn to $192bn and EPS from to, and the stock has now put in a third consecutive up-session. Nothing in the signal is deteriorating, so the right action is to protect the gain rather than cut it. Position, +13.62% / +unrealized, 36.5% of equity. No exit trigger: no Exit_Warning, not PROFIT_ARMED (Gain_ATR 1.76, T12_Progress 72.3%), 12wk target 725.33 = +38.4%. G1/G3 both bar a trim on a trending winner. Stop RAISED 438.60 -> 452.74 (2.0x ATR chandelier); the scan's own line fell to 427.24 because ATR spiked to 35.70, and the ratchet never lowers - the chandelier is the tighter of the two and locks in a further. ADR-0020 check: peak stop 452.74, live line 427.24 = -3.1%, well inside the 15% Trail Erosion bar. Horizon gap flagged again: Dell is absent from the parent us horizon file, so no forward event coverage exists for the book's largest position. · news |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 230.36 | HOLD | 230.36 | 215.95 | 244.37 (+6.1%) | 277.06 (+20.3%) | 256.92 (+11.5%) | Hold the remaining stake. Yesterday's 30% profit-take was executed into strength at 231.14 and the stock has since printed a new high with conviction pinned at 93 - the trim did its job and the residual position should now be left to run. The RSI divergence on the tape is the only blemish and it is not enough on its own to cut a name this strong. Position after the 50-share trim (banked +realized), +1.57% / +unrealized. Profit-take does NOT re-fire: the trim re-based the, so PROFIT_ARMED has dropped off the row (Gain_ATR 0.47, T12_Progress 89.66% - just under the 90% arm bar). RSI_DIV is present but ADR-0012 requires armed AND fired; unarmed, and under G1 a Tier-1 warning on a conviction-93 name is a trail-raise not a trim. 12wk 256.92 = +2.85%, alive. Stop RAISED 215.33 -> 215.95 (scan line, 1.89 ATR below close). Watch: NBIS warrant lock-up 09-11 (~21M shares) is the one dated item touching this name. |
| AAPL | Apple | 319.97 | HOLD | 319.97 | 314.62 | 324.78 (+1.5%) | 336.01 (+5.0%) | 333.68 (+4.3%) | Hold through the catalyst. Apple's 'Surprise and Shine' event lands 09-09 - two sessions away - with the iPhone 18 Pro, the first foldable iPhone Ultra and new CEO John Ternus's debut, and doctrine is explicit that a held name inside a five-day catalyst window is not pre-trimmed. The position is 2.14% underwater and conviction has fallen sharply, but the stock still sits above every moving average and its 12-week view remains positive, so there is no exit case yet. Position, -2.14% / -. PROFIT_ARMED prints (T12_Progress 95.89%) but UT-9 makes it inert on an underwater name - you cannot take profit on a loss - so tick (b), the -25pt conviction drop, cannot fire a profit-take. Close 319.97 holds above EMA10 319.51 / EMA20 316.91 / EMA50 312.52 / EMA200 285.84; 12wk 333.68 = +4.28%. Stop HELD at 314.62 - the scan's 303.93 is below the ratchet so it does not apply. RISK FLAGGED: 314.62 is only 1.67% (0.67 ATR) under the close going into a product event; an event-day whipsaw could stop the book out at the low. The ratchet is not lowered, but if this stops out on 09-09 the trail-tightening rule needs review. CROSS-POSITION NOTE: the same NAND/DRAM price spike driving today's MU add is a reported margin headwind for Apple - the book is long both sides of that trade. · news |
| CRM | SalesForce Inc | 259.23 | HOLD | — | 251.77 | n/a | n/a | 369.40 | Hold. Salesforce has now printed NO TRADE three sessions running, but the reason quoted verbatim is 'Consensus conflict + low' - the engine declining to rate an extended name, not a deterioration signal. The stock is above every moving average by a wide margin with a 12-week projection 42% higher; selling that because the model has gone quiet would be cutting a winner on a technicality. Position, +0.61% / +. Not PROFIT_ARMED (Gain_ATR 0.14), so the three NO TRADE prints cannot fire tick (d). G3 bars a trim while the forward view is this positive. RSI 76.6 is the one caution - genuinely extended - so no add either. Stop HELD at 251.77; the scan prints none under NO TRADE and a 2.0x ATR chandelier (237.18) sits below the ratchet. Watch: Dreamforce Investor Day 09-16, absent from the horizon file. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
36 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.141 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
53 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.