US Tech — End-of-Day Verdict
NO ACTION (0 acquire / 0 anticipate / 0 dispose)
Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| CRWV | CoreWeave, Inc. | 99.83 | NO ACTION | 99.83 | 92.88 | 103.96 (+4.1%) | 113.61 (+13.8%) | 93.29 (-6.6%) | CoreWeave flipped from four sessions of AVOID to a conviction-82 BUY at rank 2 on a $129bn contracted backlog and 112% revenue growth, but the fundamental screen fails outright: F-Score 4 and free cash flow of minus 6bn (FCF yield -11.5%). We do not open a new position in a company burning cash at that rate no matter how good the chart looks, and the 12-week model view is itself negative at 93.29 against a 99.83 close. Blocked as a new entry; recorded so the cost of the gate can be measured. ASSUMPTION STATED: CRWV prints Val_Signal=NA (no intrinsic anchor computable on negative FCF), which zeroes val_adj, but Quality_Pass=False was genuinely computed from real fundamentals - the NA carve-out switches off the valuation adjustment, not a quality screen that ran and failed. Re-arm trigger: Quality_Pass flips True on a fresh fairvalue fetch, or a positive Target_12Week with conviction >=80. · news |
| NBIS | Nebius Group, N.V. | 243.88 | NO ACTION | 243.88 | 234.32 | 254.10 (+4.2%) | 277.96 (+14.0%) | 260.16 (+6.7%) | Nebius printed the book's strongest signal of the day - a conviction-91 STRONG BUY at rank 1, straight out of two sessions of AVOID - on the back of its Goldman Communacopia appearance and a Citi price target raised to a Street-high The technical and news case are both strong. It is nonetheless blocked: the quality screen fails (F-Score 6 but free cash flow of minus 15bn) and the stock trades at roughly nine times our fair-value anchor, the deepest overvaluation in the buy pool. A cash-burning name priced for perfection is not where new money goes. Highest-conviction blocked name of the session; ledgered as a counterfactual to price what the gate costs (UT-12 advisory d-iii). Re-arm: Quality_Pass True. · news |
| SNDK | Sandisk Corporation | 1737.99 | NO ACTION | 1737.99 | 1685.68 | 1800.76 (+3.6%) | 1947.23 (+12.0%) | 1969.65 (+13.3%) | Sandisk is the only buy candidate today that actually passes the fundamental quality screen (F-Score 7, positive free cash flow), but the conviction is not there: a raw 68 falls to 59 after the valuation haircut and the FailedBreakdown family's newly-actionable negative track record, six points short of the 65 bar. Third consecutive session declined, and the conviction is drifting down -> 68), not up. Re-arm trigger: raw conviction >=74 with the entry not extended, which would clear the floor at 65. |
| DELL | Dell Technologies Inc | 533.88 | HOLD | 538.31 | 467.56 | n/a | 737.26 (+37.0%) | 760.78 (+41.3%) | The book's anchor position and its only large winner, up 15.7% on a 533.88 close with a 12-week view of 760.78 - there is no case for touching it. Conviction eased but the name stays a HOLD in an intact uptrend, and it is not profit-armed (gain 2.19 ATR, below the 3.0 arm; 12-week progress 70%). Stop ratcheted 452.74 -> 467.56 on the 2.0x ATR chandelier, locking in roughly a further. Note the scan's own line printed 438.83, BELOW the existing stop - the ratchet never lowers, so it is ignored, same judgement call as 09-05. |
| MU | Micron Technology, Inc. | 1000.26 | HOLD | 1000.26 | 969.00 | n/a | 1090.06 (+9.0%) | 1133.87 (+13.4%) | Yesterday's 30-share add filled at 1036.835 against a 1016.59 reference - a 2.0% gap through the L8 reprice guard - and the position now sits at a 988.9986 blended cost against a 1000.26 close, up 1.1%. Signal is a steady HOLD at 68 with a 12-week view of 1133.87, so the position stands. Stop held at 969.00: the scan's 977.81 line sits only 0.50 ATR under the close, inside a single day's noise on a 45-point-ATR name. TSMC August revenue 09-10, PPI 09-10 and CPI 09-11 all touch this name; FQ4 earnings 09-30 are still missing from the horizon file. |
| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing C | 439.00 | HOLD | 437.13 | 419.45 | n/a | 502.38 (+14.9%) | 439.06 (+0.4%) | Filled yesterday at 438.02 and already flat-to-green at a 439.00 close. The name still prints a strong conviction-83 line, but as BUY - ANTICIPATE rather than a live BUY, and it has only one anticipate print in the last three snapshots against the two required - so no add today, which also respects UT-10 (do not pyramid into a position opened one session ago). Stop set at 419.45, the level carried from the 09-05 acquire card: the scan's 404.50 is a 3.2 ATR line, too loose for a fresh position. TSMC August revenue lands 09-10, the trade's first real test. |
| CRM | SalesForce Inc | 249.12 | NO ACTION | 249.12 | 251.77⚠ | n/a | 272.10 (+9.2%) | 355.00 (+42.5%) | Salesforce closed 249.12, a hair below its 251.77 stop, and this is the one genuinely contestable call of the session. We hold. The breach is 1.05%, or 0.23 ATR - well inside the noise band and not a decisive break - and everything else is improving, not deteriorating: four sessions of NO TRADE resolved into a HOLD, the regime reads Trending, RSI is 67.5 and the 12-week view sits at 355.00, some 42% above the close. The stock is up roughly 34% in a month on strong Q2 numbers with a Dreamforce Investor Day catalyst on 09-16. Learning L2 requires a stop break AND a negative 12-week view to originate an exit; the second leg is absent, so this is not a sell. Stop held at 251.77 (the scan's 243.38 is a 0.50 ATR line). EXPLICIT EXIT TRIGGER, armed: a second consecutive close below 251.77, or any close below 245.99 (0.5 ATR under the stop), fires a DISPOSE next session without further debate. Ledgered optional so the counterfactual grader prices the decision not to cut here. · news |
| AAPL | Apple | 316.22 | HOLD | 316.22 | 314.62 | n/a | 331.36 (+4.8%) | 325.23 (+2.8%) | Apple's 'Surprise and Shine' event - iPhone 18 Pro plus the first foldable, and new CEO John Ternus's first keynote, called the most consequential iPhone launch in a decade - lands TODAY, on the execution date. The catalyst-aware rule is unambiguous: hold or trail through the event, never pre-trim into it. Position is 3.3% underwater at a 316.22 close. The PROFIT_ARMED flag on this row is an arm-on-loss mislabel and is inert - gain is MINUS 1.42 ATR, so no profit-take can fire (UT-9). Stop held at 314.62; flagging plainly that this is only 0.51% below the close, so an adverse event reaction very likely takes it out. That is accepted rather than papered over - widening a stop to survive a binary event is how risk lines stop meaning anything. · news |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 225.73 | HOLD | 225.73 | 215.95 | n/a | 241.49 (+7.0%) | 251.32 (+11.3%) | Flat position, 0.5% below the 226.80 cost after the 09-04 trim, still a HOLD though conviction dropped - the sharpest single-session conviction decline in the book. That would be a fire tick under the profit-take rule, but the position is not armed (gain MINUS 0.14 ATR, 12-week progress 89.8%, just under the 90 threshold), so nothing fires. Stop held at 215.95; the scan's 221.79 is only 0.50 ATR under the close and would be noise-taken. Watch: the NBIS warrant lock-up on roughly 21M shares hits 09-11. |
| PLTR | Palantir Technologies Inc. | 170.30 | HOLD | 176.70 | 167.07 | n/a | 189.94 (+7.5%) | 231.21 (+30.8%) | Bought four sessions ago at 175.81, now 3.1% underwater at a 170.30 close with conviction slipping. The weakest holding in the book and the one to watch, but nothing fires: still a HOLD, not armed, 12-week view 231.21 remains well above the close. No add either - the entry sits 0.72 ATR above the close and this book's PullbackBuy_VWAP cell is running at a 25% hit rate on six graded trades. Stop held at 167.07, 1.9% below the close. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
39 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
0.017 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
53 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.