Recommendations
1 to acquire · 1 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| DELL | Dell Technologies Inc | 567.29 | ADD — QUEUED @564.47 | 564.47 | 491.76 | 622.06 (+10.2%) | 756.44 (+34.0%) | 808.39 (+43.2%) | Dell is the book's highest-conviction print (88) and the only position carrying a real gain (+23%); Friday's 12% jump to an all-time high came from RBC initiating coverage at Outperform with a target, on top of record Q2 results (revenue $47bn, +58% y/y) and a $95bn AI-server order backlog, and the shares still trade near 21x forward earnings. We add to a winner on its own breakout rather than chase it: the order is a limit at the model's entry price, so it only fills if the stock comes back to us. OPERATIONAL: GTC buy-limit 564.47 (range 555.03-573.91, Entry_Price +/- 0.25 ATR); expires 2026-09-16. Sizing 713 x 112.34% = model -> x0.75 size modulator (MoS -2.48) = 601 -> capped by max_position_pct 60% headroom ( / 564.47) = 391 -> x0.5 STATED CHASE HAIRCUT = /. The haircut is a deliberate deviation from full model size, not a signal override, on three grounds: (i) UT-10 - this book has ADDed to DELL twice before (07-@411.73, 07-@419.03) and BOTH graded stop_hit; (ii) own-book BreakoutUp_52W|buy is 0-for-2 on 1wk and 4wk (n=2, report-only, cited not applied); (iii) L1 - BreakoutUp_52W 4wk targets overshoot +55-75% and mean-revert, which is why the +10.2% 1wk interpolation below should be read as an upper bound. L6 is applied in SPIRIT not letter: this is an analyst-initiation blowout, not a post-earnings gap, but a one-session +11.98% to an all-time high is structurally the same chase risk - hence the limit rather than market-on-open. Stop RAISED 469.94 -> 491.76 (2.0x ATR chandelier off the 567.29 close) - the ratchet moving up, which also protects the add. 12wk 808.39 exceeds the 446.05 DCF anchor by a wide margin - projection assumes growth beyond what is priced in. Macro caveat stated: August CPI printed core +0.3% and markets now price ~87% odds of a 25bp FOMC HIKE on 09-16, two sessions after the execution date, with triple witching 09-18 behind it. · news |
| AAPL | Apple | 332.27 | SELL 30% | 331.70 | 314.62 | 347.67 (+4.8%) | 384.92 (+16.0%) | 350.30 (+5.6%) | Apple has already travelled 94.9% of the way to its twelve-week price objective and momentum is now diverging from price, so we bank a third of the position and let the rest run. Friday's 3.6% rise on the foldable iPhone Duo launch is exactly the kind of event pop worth taking something into; the stock's multiple sits near the top of its ten-year range and management has guided margins lower again on rising memory prices. This is a partial profit-take, not an exit - stay on. OPERATIONAL: ADR-0012 profit-take, ARMED + 1 TICK FIRED. Armed via T12_Progress 94.85% >= 90 with Gain_ATR +0.60 > 0, so UT-9's inert-on-a-loser rule does NOT suppress it (contrast TSM/NVDA today). Fire tick (a): RSI_DIV printed alongside PROFIT_ARMED on the same row. G1's softening carve-out does not reach this name - it protects fresh BreakoutUp_*/MomentumContinuation_* prints only, and AAPL is AnticipationUp_VCP - so the tick fires rather than downgrading to a trail-raise. One tick = profit_take_1 = 30% tier; MoS_FV -2.855 is above the -3 amplify threshold so there is NO tier bump, and AnticipationUp_VCP|sell is n=2 report-only so no bias applies. x 331.70 =, realizing +on a 326.97 cost. Small in dollars and stated as such - the mechanism is forward-view exhaustion, not size. Residual held on the 314.62 stop (1.99 ATR cushion); the scan's printed 313.96 is below the standing line and is rejected, the ratchet holds. Note the target inversion: 4wk 384.92 sits ABOVE 12wk 350.30 - flagged as a systemic finding. 12wk 350.30 exceeds the 237.39 DCF anchor - projection assumes growth beyond priced-in. · news |
| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices, Inc | 516.13 | NO ACTION | 516.13 | 501.35 | 528.37 (+2.4%) | 556.92 (+7.9%) | 535.25 (+3.7%) | AMD is the closest thing to a second buy today and it misses by two points. Raw conviction 76 is solid and the balance sheet passes our quality screen (F-Score 8, 4bn free cash flow), but the shares are priced a long way beyond any defensible intrinsic anchor, which is what takes it under the bar. OPERATIONAL: adj = 76 - 10 (val_adj, MoS -11.22 degree-scaled and clamped) - 3 (FailedBreakdown_Up_20D|buy n=6 hit_1w 0.333, ACTIONABLE) = 63, below the 65 floor. Second consecutive session held out by the valuation haircut rather than the signal; a 7-point conviction recovery clears it. Ledgered as a direction:none counterfactual per learnings backlog (d)(iii) so the gate's cost is priced. |
| NET | Cloudflare, Inc. | 306.53 | NO ACTION | 306.53 | 298.30 | 316.41 (+3.2%) | 339.46 (+10.7%) | 365.53 (+19.2%) | Cloudflare is blocked on quality, not on the chart. The business does not yet fund itself out of operations - F-Score 4 and roughly of free cash flow against its market value - and our rule is that a new position has to clear that screen before the signal matters. OPERATIONAL: hard quality gate (Quality_Pass False) blocks new entries; conviction also faded this session and adj = 68 - 10 - 3 = 55 would fail the 65 floor anyway, so the gate is not the only thing holding it out. Third consecutive session declined. Ledgered as a counterfactual. |
| MU | Micron Technology, Inc. | 975.26 | HOLD | 975.26 | 969.00 | 1001.30 (+2.7%) | 1062.08 (+8.9%) | 1104.99 (+13.3%) | Micron holds. Essentially flat on the day (-0.22%) and conviction unchanged at 61, with a twelve-week view still +13%. OPERATIONAL: the 09-11 armed exit trigger below 969.00 did NOT fire - close 975.26 sits 6.26 above it, a 0.14 ATR cushion that is too thin to be a real risk line but the ratchet refuses to lower it (scan printed 953.55, below the standing stop - rejected). Trigger stays armed: a decisive close below 969.00 trims 30% on the CRM template. FQ4 results 09-30 are still absent from the Event Horizon file. |
| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing C | 433.24 | HOLD | 433.24 | 419.45 | 439.13 (+1.4%) | 452.86 (+4.5%) | 441.16 (+1.8%) | TSMC holds, with the best conviction recovery in the book this session on a +1.22% day. The one thing to watch is that the forward view is nearly spent - the twelve-week projection of 441.16 is only 1.8% above the close. OPERATIONAL: prints PROFIT_ARMED (T12_Progress 98.2%) but Gain_ATR is -0.49 and the position is -1.09% underwater, so UT-9 makes the flag INERT - no profit-take on a loser. Tick (c) dead-forward-view DOES fire on the numbers (441.16 < 1.02 x 433.24 = 441.90), but a fired tick is moot while the position is not validly armed - UT-9 requires Gain_ATR > 0 to arm at all. Watch for the moment TSM turns green: the arm becomes live and the already-dead 12wk view is an immediate tick, so the profit-take would fire the same session. Stop 419.45 held (1.41 ATR cushion); the scan's printed 413.62 is below the standing line and is rejected. |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 218.29 | HOLD | 218.29 | 215.95 | 221.98 (+1.7%) | 230.67 (+5.7%) | 232.04 (+6.3%) | Nvidia holds, but it is the weakest signal in the book and worth flagging plainly: conviction has fallen -> -> 42 across five sessions, a 51-point slide, while the shares went nowhere on a day the whole complex rallied. That is deteriorating, even though no exit rule fires. OPERATIONAL: prints PROFIT_ARMED (T12_Progress 94.07%) but Gain_ATR -1.38 and the position is -3.75% underwater, so UT-9 renders the flag INERT. Tick (b) needs a >=20pt drop versus the prior EOD; this session is -12, so it does not fire. Tick (c) does not fire either (232.04 > 1.02 x 218.29 = 222.66). Stop 215.95 held - only a 0.38 ATR cushion, and the scan's printed 205.91 is below the standing line and is rejected. ARMING a trigger: one more conviction print below 35, or a close below 215.95, trims 30%. |
| PLTR | Palantir Technologies Inc. | 167.23 | HOLD | 167.23 | 167.07 | 171.07 (+2.3%) | 180.04 (+7.7%) | 208.34 (+24.6%) | Palantir holds and yesterday's warning is resolved by price: it closed back above the 167.07 risk line at 167.23 (+0.83%), so the armed trim trigger did not fire. Twelve-week view is still +24.6%. OPERATIONAL: the 09-11 stop graze (165.86 vs 167.07) is cleared but the cushion is a meaningless 0.02 ATR - this is the 'stop too tight to be a risk line' problem for the fifth session running. The ratchet refuses to lower it (scan printed 164.03, a 0.50 ATR sub-noise line - rejected). RE-ARM restated numerically: a decisive close below 164.03 trims 30% on the CRM template. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
36 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.280 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
53 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.