Recommendations
0 to acquire · 2 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| MU | Micron Technology, Inc. | 924.03 | SELL 30% | 924.03 | 825.51 | 952.40 (+3.1%) | 1018.59 (+10.2%) | 1002.56 (+8.5%) | Micron broke decisively through its risk line in Monday's AI-hardware selloff (close 924.03 vs the 969.00 stop, 0.91 ATR through) after AI CEOs called for a slower pace of development, and conviction slid to 49, so we trim 30% as pre-committed while the twelve-week view (+8.5%) still argues against a full exit. OPERATIONAL: fires the 09-11 armed trigger (Z3/T2); L2 forward leg absent -> minimum tier; no valuation amplify (MoS -1.14 > -3); FailedBreakdown_Up_20D|sell bias -10 (0/5 at 1wk) argues against any larger tier. Proceeds, realizes -. Residual, post-fill stop 825.51 (W2: not written until fill). Completion trigger: close < 876.77 OR Target_12Week < 1.02x close -> SELL a further 33. Est: Target_Price 1022.55 above Est band top 1018.59 -> band top used as 4wk (U6); f=0.30 (L5). Execution verb 'market' (U1/W1/Z1). · news |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 210.96 | SELL 30% | 210.96 | 197.31 | 215.06 (+1.9%) | 224.61 (+6.5%) | 216.60 (+2.7%) | Nvidia closed below its stop (210.96 vs 215.95, 0.73 ATR through) as the chip complex sold off on AI-pace warnings, capping a six-session conviction slide from 93 to the 40s with a twelve-week view of only +2.7%, so we trim 30% as pre-committed. OPERATIONAL: fires the 09-12 armed trigger (close < 215.95 OR cv <); PROFIT_ARMED inert (UT-9, Gain_ATR -2.32); no amplify (MoS -1.76); sell cell bias -10 argues minimum tier. Proceeds, realizes -. Residual, post-fill stop 197.31 (W2). Completion trigger: close < 204.14 OR conviction < -> SELL a further 35. f=0.30. Verb 'market'. · news |
| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing C | 418.01 | HOLD | 418.01 | 419.45⚠ | 424.78 (+1.6%) | 440.59 (+5.4%) | 416.97 (-0.2%) | TSMC grazed its stop by only 0.13 ATR in the sector selloff, too shallow to call a decisive break, but its own twelve-week view has turned flat-to-negative, so we hold with a hard numeric trigger rather than an open-ended wait. OPERATIONAL: Z3 armed trigger - a second consecutive close < 419.45 OR any close < 413.80 (0.5 ATR through) fires SELL 30% next session, no further confirmation. L2 forward leg present (12wk 416.97 < close); break not decisive. Conviction (-15, under tick b). PROFIT_ARMED inert (UT-9, Gain_ATR -1.77). · news |
| DELL | Dell Technologies Inc | 534.28 | HOLD | 534.28 | 491.76 | 557.38 (+4.3%) | 611.28 (+14.4%) | 761.35 (+42.5%) | Dell holds: the 195-share add filled at 538.57 at Monday's open and the stock gave back 5.8% with the AI-hardware group, but it remains 1.1 ATR above its raised stop with a twelve-week view of +42.5% and no exit warning. OPERATIONAL: 09-12 GTC filled (ustech-20260915-0001); JSON avg 477.89 governs over scan Avg_Cost 461.30 (Y4). Stop 491.76 held (scan 515.03 at 0.50 ATR rejected; chandelier 457.28 below). Pre-registered: a breach is an ALERT (Y2 news check -> Z3 arm), not an automatic exit. T12_Progress 70.18 pinned (Z2, null). Not armed (Gain_ATR 1.46 < 3.0). · news |
| CRM | SalesForce Inc | 259.43 | HOLD | 259.43 | 238.25 | 264.18 (+1.8%) | 275.25 (+6.1%) | 369.69 (+42.5%) | Salesforce holds into Dreamforce and Tuesday's Investor Day after a +4.7% session as software sidestepped the chip selloff; conviction rose to 69 and the stop is ratcheted up to 238.25. OPERATIONAL: catalyst-aware hold (Investor Day 09-16). Stop 232.70 -> 238.25 (2.0xATR chandelier; scan 251.55 at 0.74 ATR rejected). ADR-0020 erosion 5.37% vs 251.77 peak. Re-arm trim trigger < 242.76 stands. Target_Price 280.61 above Est band top 275.25 -> band top as 4wk (U6). T12 pinned 70.18 (Z2). · news |
| PLTR | Palantir Technologies Inc. | 173.31 | NO ACTION | 175.99 | 167.07 | 177.92 (+1.1%) | 182.42 (+3.7%) | 216.14 (+22.8%) | Palantir printed a BUY - ADD on a pullback entry, but after its steep valuation haircut the adjusted conviction is 64, one point under the book's 65 floor, and adding to a position still underwater during a sector-wide reset is what this book has been burned by before. OPERATIONAL: val_adj -10 (MoS -12.88 at anchor, T4); PullbackBuy_VWAP|buy n=2 report-only -> 0 bias; UT-10. Held on the 167.07 stop (0.93 ATR; scan 169.27 at 0.60 ATR rejected); trim trigger < 164.03 stands. Counterfactual only. |
| MSFT | Microsoft Corp | 505.41 | NO ACTION | 495.10 | 484.99 | 499.61 (+0.9%) | 510.14 (+3.0%) | 613.67 (+23.9%) | Microsoft printed a STRONG BUY at conviction 86 on a pullback entry and would clear the floor at 77 after valuation, but it fails the book's quality screen (F-Score 6), which blocks new entries. OPERATIONAL: quality gate blocks new entries only; entry 495.10 is also 1.02 ATR below the close (would queue GTC, UT-6). PullbackBuy_VWAP|buy n=2 report-only. Counterfactual only. |
| NET | Cloudflare, Inc. | 330.36 | NO ACTION | 332.69 | 284.94 | 341.02 (+2.5%) | 360.47 (+8.4%) | 413.72 (+24.4%) | Cloudflare broke out to a 52-week high (+7.8%) and prints a STRONG BUY, but the business still fails the quality screen (F-Score 4) and the breakout family has missed its targets in this book. OPERATIONAL: quality gate; BreakoutUp_52W|buy n=2 0/0 report-only (L1 discount); Target_Price 428.17 far above Est band top 360.47 -> band top as 4wk (U6). Counterfactual only. |
| SNOW | Snowflake Inc. | 332.35 | NO ACTION | 332.35 | 319.00 | 338.49 (+1.8%) | 352.82 (+6.2%) | 436.29 (+31.3%) | Snowflake flipped back to BUY at 76 but fails the quality screen (F-Score 5) and, after valuation and this book's weak record on its signal family, would sit one point under the floor anyway. OPERATIONAL: quality gate; FailedBreakdown_Up_20D|buy bias -3 (n=6 actionable); Target_Price 366.44 above Est band top 352.82 -> band top as 4wk (U6). Counterfactual only. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
35 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.280 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
53 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.