US — End-of-Day Verdict
DISPOSE: SNDK 5@~1915.92 (ADR-0012 profit-take armed+dead-fwd+failed-breakout, keep 10). ACQUIRE: NO ACTION (AMD adj57 L1-chase / LLY-ADD adj61 extended-into-CPI / SNOW adj69 quality-blocked). GOOGL STRONG SELL-REDUCE single-flip -> hold100 trail345 through 07-22 (confirm to trim). NVDA prior 50-sh reduce withdrawn -> hold100 trail196.50. KLAC/MU/LLY/NBIS/GLW holds (armed-not-fired trail-raises). SPCX muted (lock-up concern; manual stop 135).
Recommendations
0 to acquire · 1 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SNDK | Sandisk Corporation | 1915.92 | SELL 30% | 1915.92 | 1520.00 | 1888.82 (-1.4%) | 1839.99 (-4.0%) | 1664.86 (-13.1%) | Bank 30% of a big winner: ADR-0012 profit-take fired — PROFIT_ARMED (T12_prog 115%, 15% past target) plus a dead/negative 12wk forward (T12 1664.86 vs close 1915.92, -13.1%) on a bearish failed-breakout print. NAND fundamentals stay strong (Strong Buy, GM 78.9%, LT supply deals through FY27) so this is a technical de-risk, not a thesis change — keep 10, trail 1520. 1 tick -> 30%; sell-side valuation-amplify (MoS -4.11) G2-SUPPRESSED (T12 66% above DCF 1005 -> DCF unreliable). Proceeds Est downside stepped out of: 1wk -1.4%/4wk -4.0%/12wk -13.1% (12wk exceeds DCF anchor). Execute Mon 07-13 open, reprice if gap >1.5% (L8). · news |
| GOOGL | Alphabet, Inc.- Class A | 357.18 | HOLD | — | 345.00 | 358.65 | 376.09 | 378.94 | Hold through earnings, don't fire on one flip. Settled close printed STRONG SELL-REDUCE cv38 (88.52%) — but it's a single late-flip (AVOID x3 before it), the 12wk forward is still +6.1% alive (T12 378.94 > close 357.18), there is no stop break, and the overlay (news-override force) says catalyst-hold through 07-22 GOOGL earnings with a close-below-345 invalidation (close 357 > 345). PROFIT_ARMED but zero fire ticks. Trail 345; require a 2nd STRONG SELL-REDUCE print OR a decisive close < 345 to execute the reduce (US-7/L4/G-gates). |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 210.96 | HOLD | — | 196.50 | 212.60 | 210.89 | 215.62 | Don't over-trim a recovering winner. The 07-10 pending 50-sh profit-take is WITHDRAWN — its ADR-0012 fire basis dissolved at the Jul-10 settled close: forward recovered to +2.2% (T12 215.62 > 1.02x close 215.18, no longer dead), print AVOID not NO TRADE, conviction rose. Armed (T12_prog 97.84%, ~at target) but zero strict ticks -> mandatory trail-raise, not a trim. Trail 196.50 (2xATR chandelier, raised from 190) protects the mature position; recurring US-7/US-11 intraday-sell -> settled-close fade. · news |
| KLAC | KLA Corporation | 231.52 | HOLD | 231.52 | 210.15 | 235.29 (+1.6%) | 237.83 (+2.7%) | 249.86 (+7.9%) | Ride the big winner (+31.7%,). Armed (T12_prog 92.66%) with a +7.9% 12wk forward still alive and cv55 HOLD — no fire ticks, so raise the trail (kept 210.15, not lowered) and hold. No trim. |
| MU | Micron Technology, Inc. | 979.30 | HOLD | 979.30 | 947.75 | 988.14 (+0.9%) | 1015.60 (+3.7%) | 1102.27 (+12.6%) | Hold the HBM winner (+14.4%). AVOID cv54 (can't add) but a +12.5% 12wk forward is alive and there is no stop break; overlay holds unless HBM pricing cracks. Keep stop 947.75 (scan emits a degenerate Entry=Stop=Close 979.30, ignored). |
| LLY | Eli Lilly & Co | 1188.58 | HOLD | 1171.42 | 1180.30 | 1200.71 (+2.5%) | 1220.41 (+4.2%) | 1277.42 (+9.0%) | Hold the armed anchor; the add doesn't clear the bar. BUY-ADD cv66 on the bankable PullbackBuy cell (+5 bias) but fusion adj = 61 < 65 (val_adj -10, MoS -3.53) and it's extended (eD -0.44) into the 07-14 CPI de-risk window -> no add. Armed (T12_prog 93%); trail 1180.30, overlay invalidation 975. |
| NBIS | Nebius Group, N.V. | 219.65 | HOLD | — | 200.00 | 220.49 | 238.04 | 259.30 | Keep the core. NO TRADE cv0 x4 but +3.8% above cost with a +18% 12wk forward; overlay says hold the core, no adds until the Meta-cloud question clears. Keep stop 200. |
| GLW | Corning Incorporated | 190.89 | HOLD | — | 182.33 | 192.38 | 198.68 | 218.16 | Hold. Flipped to NO TRADE cv0 but only -4.3% underwater with a +14.3% 12wk forward and no stop break. Keep stop 182.33. |
| SPCX | Space Exploration Tech Corp | — | HOLD | — | 135.00 | n/a | n/a | n/a | Hold on the manual 135 stop; private, no public quote so muted on signals but always news-assessed. News CONCERN: the Nasdaq-100 inclusion tailwind is now spent (was 07-07); the live overhang is the insider lock-up — first ~20% slice frees ~mid-July (Q2 earnings, imminent), up to ~44% by early September, float could grow ~900%. Watch a break of 135; auto-unmute when it appears in the scan CSV with a non-null Close. · news |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
66 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.071 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
23 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.