Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 225.51 | HOLD | 225.51 | 218.10 | 228.69 (+1.4%) | 236.10 (+4.7%) | 240.81 (+6.8%) | NVIDIA is held unchanged: the model still reads HOLD after a broad 1.3% chip pullback, the price sits 3.4% above our 218.10 stop, and there is no sell signal, so we keep the stop where it is and let the position work. OPERATIONAL: H78 -> H62 (-16, below the 20-pt tick (b) threshold). PROFIT_ARMED is the U4 phantom (Gain_ATR -0.24, armed by the T12 ratio 93.65%), no fire tick. The engine stop 214.92 is below the recorded 218.10, so the stop is NOT lowered; clearance 1.40 ATR (U2 ok). ADR-0020: 218.10 vs peak 221.79 = -1.66%, no firing. Triggers: settled close < 218.10 -> sell 30%; settled close < EMA200 ~202.63 -> full exit. |
| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing C | 446.57 | HOLD | 446.57 | 426.54 | 452.58 (+1.3%) | 466.60 (+4.5%) | 476.86 (+6.8%) | TSMC is held: it fell less than the sector (-1.20% vs a -1.33% median) and still prints HOLD with a positive 12-week view, so we ratchet the protective stop up to the model's new level. OPERATIONAL: H88 -> H69 (-19, ONE point short of tick (b); a further drop of >= 20 vs the prior EOD fires a 30% trim, T5 floor -> full exit of the-share stub). PROFIT_ARMED unfired (Gain_ATR 0.85, T12 93.65%); tick (c) alive (476.86 > 1.02 x 446.57). Stop 426.26 -> 426.54 (engine; clearance 2.0 ATR, U2 ok) = new peak stop. Trigger: settled close < 426.54 -> full exit of. |
| ASML | ASML Holding NV | 1744.61 | HOLD | 1744.61 | 1608.17 | n/a | n/a | 1588.99 (-8.9%) | ASML is held: the model keeps an AVOID-for-new-money label (conviction 64, unchanged) but prints no sell, and the stock outperformed the sell-off (-0.19% vs -1.33% median), so there is no signal-based reason to exit. OPERATIONAL: AV64 -> AV64; no REDUCE re-print, close 1,744.61 > stop 1,608.17. W1/W5 conversion triggers carried: any SELL/STRONG SELL - REDUCE re-print, or a settled close < 1,608.17 -> full exit (T5 stub). PROFIT_ARMED is the U4 phantom at -4.51%. ADR-0020: 1,608.17 vs peak 1,736.47 = -7.39%, no firing. Engine Stop_Price 1,843.99 is a short-side level on a FailedBreakout_Down row, not a long stop. |
| — | Micron Technology, Inc. | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Micron printed a fresh BUY, but it is a failed-breakdown bounce - the family with the worst record in this book - priced above fair value, and the company reports on 09-30, so we pass. OPERATIONAL: adj 68 - (MoS -1.14) - 10 (FailedBreakdown_Up_20D|buy, n= actionable) = 52 < 65. S5: anchor precedes the FQ4 AMC 09-30 print -> un-actionable at any conviction. Stop 1,048.24 is only 0.5 ATR. Re-arm: after the 09-30 print, a bullish-family row with adj >= 65 and no post-earnings gap (L). |
| — | ASE Technology Holding | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | ASE printed a pre-breakout setup (conviction 75) but it is the first such print in three sessions and the stock fails our quality screen, so it does not qualify for the anticipate slot. OPERATIONAL: ANT (B65 / W38 / ANT75) <; Quality_Pass False (W anti-correlation again); MoS -10.04. Re-arm: a second ANTICIPATE print on 09-24 makes it slot-eligible on count, but the quality gate still blocks a new entry. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
59 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
0.091 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
91 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.