Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 224.58 | HOLD | 224.58 | 218.10 | 227.65 (+1.4%) | 234.82 (+4.6%) | 239.38 (+6.6%) | NVIDIA stays held: it fell less than the sector (-0.41% vs a -0.66% median), still prints HOLD with a positive 12-week view, and sits 1.3 ATR above its stop. OPERATIONAL: H62 -> H56 (-6, not tick b). PROFIT_ARMED is phantom (U4: Gain_ATR -0.43, T12 93.82%); no fire ticks, and tick (c) is alive (239.38 > 1.02 x 224.58). Stop 218.10 held; the engine's 214.34 is lower and stops are never lowered. ADR-0020: 218.10 vs peak 221.79 (-1.66%), no fire. Triggers: settled close < 218.10 -> sell 30%; close < EMA200 ~202.82 -> full exit. |
| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing C | 451.15 | HOLD | 451.15 | 433.15 | 470.67 (+4.3%) | 516.22 (+14.4%) | 488.04 (+8.2%) | TSMC stays held: it was one of only names to rise (+1.03%), and conviction recovered on a new volatility-contraction setup, so we ratchet the stop up to the model's trail. OPERATIONAL: H69 -> H75 (), which defuses the tick-(b) watch from 09-23. PROFIT_ARMED unfired (Gain_ATR 1.26, T12 92.44%); tick (c) alive (488.04 > 1.02 x 451.15). Stop 426.54 -> 433.15 (engine chandelier 2.0 ATR, clearance 1.73 ATR) = new peak stop. Trigger: settled close < 433.15 -> full exit of (T5 stub). |
| ASML | ASML Holding NV | 1722.50 | HOLD | 1722.50 | 1608.17 | n/a | n/a | 1592.70 (-7.5%) | ASML stays held for now: it still reads AVOID rather than a sell signal, conviction faded to 56, and it is 2.4 ATR above its protective stop. A real sell print or a stop break converts it to a full exit. OPERATIONAL: AV64 -> AV56. PROFIT_ARMED is phantom (U4: -5.72% vs cost, T12 108%). The 12wk 1,592.70 < close is board regime noise (V: 8/20 rows), not tick (c). The engine Stop_Price 1,819.55 is a short-side level and is ignored. W1 triggers (mandatory full exit, T5): any SELL/STRONG SELL - REDUCE re-print, or settled close < 1,608.17. ADR-0020: 1,608.17 vs peak 1,736.47 (-7.39%), no fire. |
| — | Micron Technology, Inc. | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Micron's BUY strengthened to conviction 76 and ranks #1, but it is a failed-breakdown bounce (a family with a weak record in this book), priced above fair value, and it reports on 09-30, so we pass until after the print. OPERATIONAL: adj 76 - 8 (MoS -1.50) - 7 (FailedBreakdown_Up_20D|buy, n= actionable) = 61 < 65. S5: the anchor precedes the FQ4 AMC 09-30 print, so it is un-actionable at any conviction. Stop 1,044.00 is 0.8 ATR away. News: Citi raised its PT ahead of earnings; that is pre-print, so neutral. Re-arm: after the 09-30 print, a bullish-family row with adj >= 65 and no post-earnings gap (L). |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
59 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
0.493 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
91 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.