Recommendations
0 to acquire · 1 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing | 456.94 | SELL ALL | 456.94 | 435.93 | 451.14 (-1.3%) | 437.59 (-4.2%) | 506.66 (+10.9%) | TSMC's profit-armed stub has flipped from HOLD to a bearish ReversalDown_Overbought print with conviction down 24 points, a second deterioration tick on top of the 09-28 RSI divergence; the-share stub is too small to slice, so the exit stays full. Re-issues the unfilled 09-28 card (executor deadlock), repriced to the 09-29 close 456.94. ADR-0012 armed (T12 90.19%, Unreal +4.32%, Gain_ATR 1.80 -> U4 passes) + tick (b) conv (-24); G1 n/a; G2 suppresses MoS -14.75 bump; 30% tier = 0. -> T5 full exit. Reprice if the open gaps >1.5%. · news |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 227.21 | HOLD | 227.21 | 218.10 | 230.55 (+1.5%) | 238.35 (+4.9%) | 244.61 (+7.7%) | NVIDIA held: the long-side signal is intact (H75 -> H63, a 12-point dip, not a collapse) and the 12-week view 244.61 sits well above the close. It lagged the rebound (-0.72% vs +2.40% median) one day after leading the sell-off - rotation, n=1, watched under W2. PROFIT_ARMED is phantom (U4: +0.18%, Gain_ATR 0.07); no ticks. Stop 218.10 held (engine 216.07 lower). W1 triggers carried: settled close < 218.10 -> sell 30%; < EMA200 -> full exit. |
| ASML | ASML Holding NV | 1834.39 | HOLD | 1834.39 | 1691.53 | 1915.92 (+4.4%) | 2106.14 (+14.8%) | 1861.23 (+1.5%) | ASML held and strengthening: HOLD conviction jumped on an AnticipationUp_VCP print as it rose 3.56% back above cost. PROFIT_ARMED is phantom (U4: +0.41%, Gain_ATR 0.14), so the literal tick (c) (12wk 1861 < 1.02x close) cannot found a trim; V regime noise also applies. Stop raised 1677.02 -> 1691.53 (engine). W1: any SELL/STRONG SELL - REDUCE print or settled close < 1691.53 -> full exit. |
| — | Lumentum Holdings | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Lumentum printed STRONG BUY 86 as Buy_Rank #1, but it fails the quality gate (F-Score/FCF screen), which blocks new entries; it is also a single-print flip from WATCH (Q4). adj 86 -10 (MoS -7.22) -7 (FailedBreakdown_Up_20D|buy actionable) = 69. S4 re-arm: none while Quality_Pass is False (W). |
| — | Arm Holdings plc | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Arm flipped to BUY 68, but it fails the quality gate, is priced far beyond its anchor (MoS -30), and sits in the book's worst-graded buy family; adj 51 < 65. Single print after W63 (Q4). S4: no re-arm while QP False. |
| — | ASE Technology Holding | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | ASE printed a 20-day breakout BUY 65 from NO TRADE, but it fails the quality gate and adj 55 < 65; a one-bar breakout flip is a chase (L1/Q4). S4: no re-arm while QP False. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
60 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
0.493 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
91 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.