Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASML | ASML Holding NV | 1750.24 | HOLD | 1750.24 | 1651.25 | 1779.94 (+1.7%) | 1849.23 (+5.7%) | 1795.37 (+2.6%) | ASML holds into tomorrow's Q print: the close of 1,750.24 nicked the 1,751.05 stop by just 0.016 ATR on a broad semis sell-off it outperformed (-1.69% vs a -2.85% median), the 12wk view is still positive, and consensus expects ~56% revenue growth. USC-EOQ-CH catalyst hold (TSM 10-08 precedent): the hard line resets to the 1,651.25 model stop through the print (P2); peak stop 1,751.05 (ADR-0020 -5.7%, no fire). H68 -> H42 is cross-sectional, and PROFIT_ARMED is the U4 phantom (-4.20%). W1 trigger: settled close < 1,651.25 or any SELL/STRONG SELL - REDUCE -> full exit; post-print 10-14 close < 1,751.05 with raw conv < 50 -> full exit at the 10-15 open. · news |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 226.32 | HOLD | 226.32 | 224.76 | 229.40 (+1.4%) | 236.60 (+4.5%) | 245.69 (+8.6%) | NVIDIA holds: -1.29% on a -2.85% semis tape is relative strength (W2, sector beta), 0.30 ATR above the 224.76 stop, with a +8.6% 12wk view ahead of TSMC's 10-15 read-through. HOLD is cross-sectional; PROFIT_ARMED is the U4 phantom (-0.21%). Stop not lowered to the 216.04 model stop. W1 carried: settled close < 224.76 -> sell 30%; < EMA200 205.63 -> full exit. · news |
| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing C | 444.35 | HOLD | 444.35 | 435.16 | 451.62 (+1.6%) | 468.57 (+5.5%) | 491.43 (+10.6%) | TSMC catalyst hold continues: -1.98% on a -2.85% median tape, 0.76 ATR above the 435.16 hard line, with a +10.6% 12wk view and the Q print on 10-15 (USC-EOQ-CH/P2). HOLD is cross-sectional; PROFIT_ARMED is the U4 phantom. W1: settled close < 435.16 or any SELL/STRONG SELL - REDUCE -> full exit (T5); re-base the stop after 10-15. |
| — | ASE Technology Holding | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | ASE printed STRONG BUY 93 (Buy_Rank 1) and was the only mandate name to rise on a -2.85% semis day, but the hard quality gate blocks a new entry (Quality_Pass False, Rank 16/20, verified across the 10-10 regeneration, Q5). Adj would be 83 (MoS -5.77 -> -10; MomentumContinuation_Up cell n=1, report-only). S8 release: QP flips True while a bullish print with raw >= 75 stands -> GTC buy-stop at the live Entry_Price, x0.5 size. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
65 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
0.091 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
91 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.