Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASML | ASML Holding NV | 1717.76 | HOLD | 1717.76 | 1651.25 | 1749.71 (+1.9%) | 1824.25 (+6.2%) | 1715.51 (-0.1%) | ASML holds into tomorrow's pre-open Q print: it lagged a flat semis tape (-1.86% vs a +0.10% median) on equipment-sector weakness and sits 1.25 ATR above its 1,651.25 catalyst-hold line, with conviction back up to 52 but the 12wk view now flat. P2/USC-EOQ-CH: no tightening into the print; peak stop 1,751.05 (ADR-0020 -5.7%, no fire); PROFIT_ARMED is the U4 phantom (-5.98%). W1 (exec 10-15 open): settled close < 1,651.25 or any REDUCE print -> full exit; post-print 10-14 close < 1,751.05 with raw conv < 50 OR Target_12Week < Close (L2 leg, sharpened tonight) -> full exit. · news |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 228.52 | HOLD | 228.52 | 224.76 | 231.66 (+1.4%) | 238.98 (+4.6%) | 245.79 (+7.6%) | NVIDIA holds: +0.97% on a flat tape, with conviction firming and a +7.6% 12wk view, 0.72 ATR above the 224.76 stop ahead of TSMC's 10-15 read-through. PROFIT_ARMED (T12 92.97%, +0.76%) has no fire tick; the U2 1.0-ATR raise (223.29) is below the current stop, so the stop is unchanged. W1: settled close < 224.76 -> sell 30%; < EMA200 206.01 -> full exit. · news |
| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing C | 445.12 | HOLD | 445.12 | 435.16 | 451.90 (+1.5%) | 467.73 (+5.1%) | 481.99 (+8.3%) | TSMC holds into its 10-15 Q print: conviction rose with an +8.3% 12wk view, 0.88 ATR above the 435.16 hard line (USC-EOQ-CH/P2). PROFIT_ARMED (T12 92.35%, +1.62%) has no fire tick; the U2 raise (433.81) is below the line. W1: settled close < 435.16 or any REDUCE print -> full exit (T5); after 10-15 re-base to max(model stop 422.51, chandelier) with >= 1.0 ATR clearance. |
| — | Marvell Technology | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Marvell printed BUY 68 (Buy_Rank 1) on a +1.08% day, but a new entry is blocked by the hard quality gate (Quality_Pass False, Rank 13/20) and would also miss the 65 floor: adj 51 after valuation (MoS -8.41 -> -10) and the actionable FailedBreakdown_Up_20D|buy cell (-7, hit_4w 0.0). S8 release: QP True + a bullish print raw >= 82 -> GTC at the live Entry_Price, x0.5. |
| — | ASE Technology Holding | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | ASE cooled from STRONG BUY 93 to BUY 58 (BreakoutUp_52W, buy-stop 48.31 not reached); still blocked by the hard quality gate (QP False, Rank 16/20) and below the floor at adj 48. The 10-12 gate block cost nothing (+0.15%). S8 release unchanged: QP True + a bullish print raw >= 75 -> GTC buy-stop at the live Entry_Price, x0.5. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
65 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
0.091 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
91 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.