Recommendations
0 to acquire · 3 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 212.21 | SELL 30% | 212.21 | 209.38 | n/a | n/a | 197.47 (-6.9%) | NVIDIA fell 4.4% in a sector-wide chip selloff (SOX down >6% after Lam's guidance) and closed at 212.21, a seventh straight close below its 224.76 stop and now a decisive 1.8 ATR under it, on a NO TRADE signal with a 12-week view (197.47) below the price, so the pre-committed 30% de-risk stands. Sixth re-issue of the unfilled 10-14 W1 card (executor dormant), repriced from 221.97, superseding the 10-21 card (no stacking). L2 met. of at the 10-23 open; residual, stop 209.38 (close is only +0.41 ATR above it). Next W1: settled close < 209.38 -> further 30%; < EMA200 207.09 -> full exit. Realized about -vs cost 226.80. · news |
| ASML | ASML Holding NV | 1560.54 | SELL ALL | 1560.54 | 1651.25⚠ | n/a | n/a | 1282.08 (-17.8%) | ASML dropped 6.9% back below its 1,651.25 line (1.6 ATR under) and below its 200-day EMA (1,568.62), on a seventh zero-conviction NO TRADE with a 12-week view (1,282) 18% under the price, so both exit legs now hold again and the stub exit stands. Sixth re-issue of the unfilled 10-14 W1 full-exit card, repriced from 1,676.69, superseding the 10-21 card. Q1 check: no long-side label and no EMA50 reclaim, so not withdrawn; the stop leg is reinstated. Full exit at the 10-23 open. Realized about - (-14.6%). · news |
| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing C | 412.35 | SELL ALL | 412.35 | 435.16⚠ | n/a | n/a | 374.35 (-9.2%) | TSMC fell 4.5% in the chip selloff to 412.35, a seventh close below its 435.16 hard line (now 1.5 ATR under) on a NO TRADE signal with a negative 12-week view (374.35), so the stub exit stands. Sixth re-issue of the unfilled 10-14 W1/T5 full-exit card, repriced from 431.89, superseding the 10-21 card. Full exit at the 10-23 open. Realized about - (-5.9%). · news |
| — | Lam Research Corp | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Lam printed STRONG BUY 88 (oversold reversal) after an 11.8% post-earnings drop on supply-constrained guidance, but it is a single bullish print in a confirmed sector bear tape, its own 12-week view (131.19) sits 43% below the price, and the post-close STRONG BUY is unconfirmed by an open, so no entry. Conditional idea ledgered for counterfactual grading (GTC buy-limit 230.15 x0.5 not placed). Blocks: Q4 two-print gate, S8 re-arm needs Target_12Week > Close, L post-print. Re-arm: second consecutive BUY-family print raw >= 75 with Target_12Week > Close -> GTC x0.5. |
| — | KLA Corporation | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | KLA printed STRONG BUY 90 (oversold reversal, Buy_Rank 1) after a ~10% drop in sympathy with Lam's guidance, but it fails the hard quality gate for new entries, reports around 10-28, and its 12-week view (84.26) is 43% under the price, so no entry. Blocks: Quality_Pass False, L (print pending), Q4 single print. Re-arm: BUY-family raw >= 75, QP True, after the ~10-28 print settles. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
83 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
0.091 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
91 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.