Recommendations
0 to acquire · 3 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 210.96 | SELL 30% | 210.96 | 209.38 | n/a | n/a | 191.60 (-9.2%) | NVIDIA closed at 210.96, an eighth straight close below its 224.76 stop (2.2 ATR under) on a zero-conviction NO TRADE signal with a 12-week view (191.60) below the price, while supply constraints and memory costs weigh on margins, so the pre-committed 30% de-risk stands. Seventh re-issue of the unfilled 10-14 W1 card (executor dormant), repriced from 212.21, superseding the 10-22 card (no stacking). L2 met. of at the 10-26 open; residual, stop 209.38 (close only +0.25 ATR above). Next W1: settled close < 209.38 -> further 30%; < EMA200 207.16 -> full exit. Realized about -vs cost 226.80. · news |
| ASML | ASML Holding NV | 1571.80 | SELL ALL | 1571.80 | 1651.25⚠ | n/a | n/a | 1258.82 (-19.9%) | ASML closed at 1,571.80, still 1.3 ATR below its 1,651.25 line on an eighth zero-conviction NO TRADE, with a 12-week view (1,258.82) about 20% under the price, so the stub exit stands. Seventh re-issue of the unfilled 10-14 W1 full-exit card, repriced from 1,560.54, superseding the 10-22 card. Q1: no long-side label, no EMA50 reclaim (1,711.56); the EMA200 touch (1,569.98) is immaterial. Full exit at the 10-26 open. Realized about - (-14.0%). · news |
| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing C | 418.51 | SELL ALL | 418.51 | 435.16⚠ | n/a | n/a | 375.83 (-10.2%) | TSMC closed at 418.51, an eighth close below its 435.16 hard line (1.2 ATR under) on a NO TRADE signal with a negative 12-week view (375.83), so the stub exit stands. Seventh re-issue of the unfilled 10-14 W1/T5 full-exit card, repriced from 412.35, superseding the 10-22 card. Full exit at the 10-26 open. Realized about - (-4.5%). · news |
| — | Amkor Technology | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Amkor printed BUY 73 (oversold bounce, Buy_Rank 1) after three AVOID prints, but it fails the quality screen that gates new entries, it is a single bullish print in a sector bear tape, and its own 12-week view (22.40) sits 43% below the price, so no entry. Conditional idea ledgered for counterfactual grading (GTC buy-limit 39.30 not placed). Blocks: Quality_Pass False, Q4 two-print gate, S8 needs Target_12Week > Close. Re-arm: QP True and bullish raw >= 69 with Target_12Week > Close -> GTC at live Entry_Price. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
86 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
0.091 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
91 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.