Recommendations
0 to acquire · 2 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 217.94 | SELL 30% | 217.94 | 209.38 | n/a | n/a | 199.31 (-8.5%) | NVIDIA closed at 217.94, its tenth straight close below the 224.76 stop (1.2 ATR under) on a zero-conviction NO TRADE signal with a 12-week view (199.31) below the price, and it lagged the chip rebound badly (+0.90% vs a +3.76% median) while memory names led, so the pre-committed 30% de-risk stands. Eighth re-issue of the unfilled 10-14 W1 card (executor dormant), repriced from 210.96, superseding the 10-23 card (no stacking). L2 met; W2 own-name weakness. of at the 10-28 open; residual, stop 209.38. Next W1: settled close < 209.38 -> further 30%; < EMA200 207.46 -> full exit. Realized about -vs cost 226.80. · news |
| ASML | ASML Holding NV | 1635.57 | SELL ALL | 1635.57 | 1651.25⚠ | n/a | n/a | 1316.64 (-19.5%) | ASML closed at 1,635.57, still below its 1,651.25 line on a tenth zero-conviction NO TRADE print, below EMA50 (1,704) with a 12-week view (1,316.64) about 20% under the price, so the stub exit stands. Eighth re-issue of the unfilled 10-14 W1 full-exit card, repriced from 1,571.80, superseding the 10-23 card. Q1: basis intact but thin (-0.28 ATR); a settled close > 1,651.25 before the fill withdraws it. Full exit at the 10-28 open. Realized about - (-10.5%). · news |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
89 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
0.091 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
91 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.