Recommendations
0 to acquire · 1 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 215.38 | SELL 30% | 215.38 | 209.38 | n/a | n/a | 196.06 (-9.0%) | NVIDIA closed at 215.38, its eleventh straight close below the 224.76 stop (1.6 ATR under) on a zero-conviction NO TRADE signal with a 12-week view (196.06) below the price, and it fell 1.2% on a day the chip index rose for a third session, so the 30% de-risk stands. Ninth re-issue of the unfilled 10-14 W1 card (executor dormant), repriced from 217.94, superseding the 10-27 card (no stacking). L2 met; W2 own-name weakness x2. of at the 10-29 open (reprice if the open gaps >1.5% after MSFT/GOOGL prints); residual, stop 209.38. Next W1: settled close < 209.38 -> further 30%; < EMA200 207.45 -> full exit. Realized about -vs cost 226.80. · news |
| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing C | 439.51 | HOLD | 439.51 | 435.16 | n/a | n/a | 413.26 (-6.0%) | TSMC held above its 435.16 line at 439.51 and its label improved from AVOID to HOLD 53 on a bullish-consolidation read, so the position is kept. Engine row stop 416.19; book keeps the tighter 435.16. W1 re-armed: settled close < 435.16 -> full exit (T5) at the next open. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
91 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
0.091 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
91 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.