Recommendations
0 to acquire · 2 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 213.66 | SELL 30% | 213.66 | 209.38 | n/a | n/a | 192.67 (-9.8%) | NVIDIA closed at 213.66, its twelfth straight close below the 224.76 stop (2.1 ATR under), on a zero-conviction NO TRADE signal with a 12-week view (192.67) about 10% below the price, so the 30% de-risk stands. Tenth re-issue of the unfilled 10-14 W1 card (executor dormant), repriced from 215.38, superseding the 10-28 card (no stacking). L2 met. of at the 10-30 open (reprice if gap >1.5%); residual, stop 209.38 (+0.81 ATR away). Next W1: settled close < 209.38 -> further 30%; < EMA200 207.55 -> full exit. Realized about -vs cost 226.80. |
| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing C | 431.81 | SELL ALL | 431.81 | 435.16⚠ | n/a | n/a | 406.05 (-6.0%) | TSMC settled at 431.81, below the 435.16 stop the book pre-committed to, while its signal slipped from HOLD 53 back to a zero-conviction NO TRADE and its 12-week view (406.05) sits below the price, so the position is exited in full. W1/T5 pre-commit fired (-0.29 ATR); L2 met. The 10-28 CoWoS price-hike headline did not hold into the close. at the 10-30 open (reprice if gap >1.5%). Re-entry: fresh BUY-family raw >= 70 and a settled close > 435.16. Realized about -vs cost 438.02. · news |
| ASML | ASML Holding NV | 1675.70 | HOLD | 1675.70 | 1651.25 | n/a | n/a | 1417.30 (-15.4%) | ASML closed at 1,675.70, up a fourth session and 0.5 ATR above its 1,651.25 stop, so the position is held. NT0 x12 below EMA50 1,701; 12wk alone does not originate (R). W1 armed: settled close < 1,651.25 -> full exit at the next open. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
92 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
0.091 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
91 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.