Recommendations
0 to acquire · 3 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 204.64 | SELL ALL | 204.64 | 224.76⚠ | n/a | n/a | 177.45 (-13.3%) | NVIDIA closed at 204.64, below its 200-day average of 207.56 and its thirteenth straight close under the 224.76 stop, in a chip rout led by Intel's weak guide, so the book exits the whole position on the line it wrote in advance. The stock held up better than the group (-4.2% vs a -7.6% median), but its signal is still zero-conviction NO TRADE and the 12-week view (177.45) is 13% below the price. W1/Q2 full-exit clause fired (-0.43 ATR below EMA200); the ladder was written for a residual, but the trim never filled, so it applies to the on file. Replaces the unfilled 10-29 card (no stacking). at the 11-02 open; reprice if the gap exceeds 1.5%; a gap up does not cancel (S2). Re-add: fresh BUY/BUY - ADD raw >= 75 and settled close > 224.76. Realized about -vs cost 226.80. · news |
| ASML | ASML Holding NV | 1565.90 | SELL ALL | 1565.90 | 1651.25⚠ | n/a | n/a | 1275.02 (-18.6%) | ASML fell 6.6% to 1,565.90, closing below the 1,651.25 stop and just under its 200-day average, on a zero-conviction NO TRADE signal, so the position is exited in full as the book pre-committed. No company-specific news was found; the move came with the sector-wide AI spending selloff. W1/T5 clause fired (-1.27 ATR). The 12wk (1,275.02, -18.6%) is board-wide (V), so the basis is the written line, not the forecast. at the 11-02 open; reprice if the gap exceeds 1.5%; a gap up does not cancel (S2). Re-entry: fresh BUY-family raw >= 70 and settled close > 1,651.25. Realized about -vs cost 1,826.98. |
| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing C | 406.13 | SELL ALL | 406.13 | 435.16⚠ | n/a | n/a | 365.11 (-10.1%) | TSMC fell 5.9% to 406.13, moving further below the 435.16 stop that triggered the 10-29 exit, on a second zero-conviction NO TRADE print with no offsetting news, so the unfilled full exit is re-issued at the lower price. Basis strengthened (-1.86 ATR, was -0.29), so V1 re-issues rather than withdraws. Replaces the unfilled 10-29 card (no stacking). at the 11-02 open; reprice if the gap exceeds 1.5%; a gap up does not cancel (S2). Re-entry: fresh BUY-family raw >= 70 and settled close > 435.16. Realized about -vs cost 438.02. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
94 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
0.091 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
91 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.