Recommendations
0 to acquire · 3 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 202.06 | SELL ALL | 202.06 | 224.76⚠ | n/a | n/a | 168.74 (-16.5%) | NVIDIA closed at 202.06, its fourteenth close under the 224.76 stop and further below its 200-day average, and the model has now moved from NO TRADE to an explicit SELL - REDUCE, so the full exit stands at a lower price. It held up better than the group (-1.3% vs a -4.6% median) on a day it was not the target of the selling, but that does not repair the break, and the 12-week view (168.74) is 16.5% below the price. Re-issue of the unfilled 10-30 card, repriced from 204.64; replaces it (no stacking). Q2/V1: the EMA200 clause fired on the settled close and the basis strengthened (-0.80 ATR vs -0.43). R2 considered: the engine prints REDUCE 53.64%, but R2 governs an inferred exit, and this 100% is a written line that already fired, so stands. USC-EOQ-CH n/a (12W negative; earnings 11-17). at the 11-03 open; reprice if the gap exceeds 1.5%; a gap up does not cancel (S2). Re-add: fresh BUY/BUY - ADD raw >= 75 and settled close > 224.76. Realized about -vs cost 226.80. · news |
| ASML | ASML Holding NV | 1526.14 | SELL ALL | 1526.14 | 1651.25⚠ | n/a | n/a | 1185.15 (-22.3%) | ASML fell another 2.5% to 1,526.14, further below the 1,651.25 stop and its 200-day average, on a fourteenth zero-conviction NO TRADE print, so the unfilled full exit is re-issued at the lower price. No company-specific news was found; the move came with a sector rout. Re-issue of the 10-30 card, repriced from 1,565.90; replaces it (no stacking). V1: basis strengthened (-1.78 ATR vs -1.27). The 12wk (1,185.15, -22.3%) is board-wide (V), so the basis is the written line, not the forecast. at the 11-03 open; reprice if the gap exceeds 1.5%; a gap up does not cancel (S2). Re-entry: fresh BUY-family raw >= 70 and settled close > 1,651.25. Realized about -vs cost 1,826.98. |
| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing C | 398.63 | SELL ALL | 398.63 | 435.16⚠ | n/a | n/a | 342.21 (-14.2%) | TSMC fell 1.8% to 398.63, further below the 435.16 stop and now just under its 200-day average, on a third zero-conviction NO TRADE print with no offsetting news, so the unfilled full exit is re-issued at the lower price. Re-issue of the 10-30 card, repriced from 406.13; replaces it (no stacking). V1: basis strengthened (-2.32 ATR vs -1.86). at the 11-03 open; reprice if the gap exceeds 1.5%; a gap up does not cancel (S2). Re-entry: fresh BUY-family raw >= 70 and settled close > 435.16. Realized about -vs cost 438.02. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
97 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
0.091 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
91 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.