Recommendations
0 to acquire · 3 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 206.69 | SELL ALL | 206.69 | 224.76⚠ | n/a | n/a | 171.20 (-17.2%) | NVIDIA bounced 2.3% to 206.69 with the chip rebound, but it is still well under its 224.76 stop and its 200-day average, and the model is back to NO TRADE, so the full exit stands. The rise matched the group (+1.9% median), which reads as a market bounce rather than a repair, and the 12-week view (171.20) is 17% below the price. Re-issue of the unfilled 11-02 card, repriced from 202.06; replaces it (no stacking). Q2/S2: the written stop/EMA200 line fired on the 10-30 settled close and both legs remain breached (-2.55 ATR / -0.19 ATR). V1: basis softened, not decayed; withdraw if a settled close > EMA200 comes with a non-NoTrade bullish label. at the 11-04 open; reprice if the gap exceeds 1.5%; a gap up does not cancel (S2). Re-add: fresh BUY/BUY - ADD raw >= 75 and settled close > 224.76. Realized about -vs cost 226.80. · news |
| ASML | ASML Holding NV | 1552.14 | SELL ALL | 1552.14 | 1651.25⚠ | n/a | n/a | 1183.64 (-23.7%) | ASML rose 1.7% to 1,552.14 in the sector bounce but remains below its 1,651.25 stop and its 200-day average, on a fifteenth zero-conviction NO TRADE print, so the unfilled full exit is re-issued. News was neutral (a capacity-execution note), with nothing that repairs the break. Re-issue of the 11-02 card, repriced from 1,526.14; replaces it (no stacking). V1: basis softened slightly (-1.50 ATR vs -1.78), still decisive. at the 11-04 open; reprice if the gap exceeds 1.5%; a gap up does not cancel (S2). Re-entry: fresh BUY-family raw >= 70 and settled close > 1,651.25. Realized about -vs cost 1,826.98. · news |
| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing C | 404.80 | SELL ALL | 404.80 | 435.16⚠ | n/a | n/a | 340.37 (-15.9%) | TSMC rose 1.6% to 404.80 and back above its 200-day average, but it is still well under the 435.16 stop on a fourth zero-conviction NO TRADE print with a negative 12-week view (340.37), so the full exit stands. News was neutral (a bullish 2nm analysis piece), with no override. Re-issue of the 11-02 card, repriced from 398.63; replaces it (no stacking). L2 basis (stop break -2.09 ATR + negative 12wk) intact; the EMA200 leg lapsed but never originated the exit. T5: is already the full-exit rounding. at the 11-04 open; reprice if the gap exceeds 1.5%; a gap up does not cancel (S2). Re-entry: fresh BUY-family raw >= 70 and settled close > 435.16. Realized about -vs cost 438.02. · news |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
100 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
0.091 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
91 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.